tikimixologist
No bio...
User ID: 257
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Scrolling up, we're discussing this:
Incels have done enough chadfishing experiments to show that you can say or believe whatever you want so long as they are attracted to you
I don't know what you mean by "actually commit". I certainly don't try to use FACTS AND LOGIC to convert women to conservativism or into my bed.
I make no comment about whether this works on politics for long term relationships, though certainly building and maintaining attraction through flirtation has helped my long term relationships.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
"Trump seems pretty ok" is the riskiest one here, do you ever caveat it, or what's the context?
One context I can remember was something about how I'm tired of hearing how evil candidate Trump is on every single TV at the gym. "But isn't he so evil?" "I dunno, he seems cool whenever they let him talk. What's evil?" "He's racist." "No he isn't, he's out there defending American Indians from white ladies like Pocahontas trying to steal their AA slots."
I also would have predicted that the only way for you to call Ben Shapiro right would be to dunk on him. This is unsurprising, since most people ignore the literal and logical implications of words and go straight for the emotivism. If your claim is heard and understood as merely "Fuck Ben Shapiro" then it doesn't imply anything interesting about what you believe.
I also believe "fuck Ben Shapiro". He's a wanker who creates a bad impression of conservatives by being a youtube version of internet nerds. He's right on the little bits I've seen him say, but also I haven't paid much attention cause he's annoying.
It sounds like what you're saying is, "if you're hot you can troll with inflammatory-sounding things that creatively shit on the right."
No, I shit on Ben Shapiro specifically because you asked about him specifically after I described him as a person not to emulate.
Most of the trolling I do (or did, less relevant now) is not negative about the right at all. It's more about highlighting the inconsistencies of the left.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
You're not sharing sincere beliefs, you're telling jokes and dunking on people.
You seem to believe these can't be done simultaneously.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
I asked about emulating Shapiro's position while not emulating his style and the only way to do that is emulate his position while denigrating him.
Yes, in a conversation about a particular human, you need to express an opinion about that human. Yaying "yeah he's soooo smart did you see that youtube video where he proved Matt Yglesias is wrong" is not a panty peeler for liberal or conservative women.
I can defend a position that is likely aligned with him - in a humorous and trollish manner - without mentioning the specific person at all.
The bit about Pocahontas is riskier, and I'll give you more credit for that. If I was motivated to pick that apart too, I would say you seem to be capitalizing on "50 Stalins ambiguity."
...attack the excess of the Left, but not really from a Rightist perspective.
Stuff I do when I want to have sex: ambiguity, mystery, trollish playfulness.
Stuff I'd do when I want to masturbate and then cry myself to sleep out of loneliness: attack her opinions WITH FACTS AND LOGIC.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
I don't understand this complaint about the death penalty specifically. The alternative to the death penalty in most cases is life imprisonment which barely seems better. Why are false positives with life imprisonment ok, but the false death penalties not?
Moreover, life imprisonment lets us pretend that we'll fix the false positives later on, even though I see little evidence we actually will.
Overall this argument seems like an isolated demand for rigor.
With what odds will an innocent person sentenced to life imprisonment actually get their sentence partially reversed? Or...here's a more quantitative approach.
Take a typical time to live on death row of maybe 10 years (all the appeals, etc). What fraction of people sentence to life imprisonment get their sentences reversed in year 11-99? I'd hazard a guess it's quite low, but not sure where to find the numbers.
(Actually I suspect it might be high if your dataset overlaps the period when DNA testing was introduced - mainly cause a backlog of cases was created that could only be addressed after a technological advance.)
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Again - will we actually do it? I'm asking about probability and gambling odds, not theoretical possibility of a comforting story.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Perhaps significantly, Gene Roddenberry (and maybe Carl Sagan) was the type who could at least recognise the value in different visions of the world, even if he thought that American liberalism was superior.
Interestingly, that would probably get Star Trek and TNG cancelled today. Here's a fun exchange from Star Trek:
LINCOLN: What a charming negress. Oh, forgive me, my dear. I know in my time some used that term as a description of property.
UHURA: But why should I object to that term, sir? You see, in our century we've learned not to fear words.
KIRK: May I present our communications officer, Lieutenant Uhura.
LINCOLN: The foolishness of my century had me apologising where no offense was given.
KIRK: We've each learned to be delighted with what we are. The Vulcans learned that centuries before we did.
Remember that episode when Riker hooked up with a transwoman, but then her planet made her do conversion therapy? The federation didn't use centralized corporations/control of the financial system to punish them or anything. Just an explicit anti-colonialist statement from Picard that they need to be allowed to do their thing.
Similarly for the eugenics planet, although they did grant asylum to a few.
It's also not the utopia that everyone remembers, or at least not everywhere. Earth is nice but one crew member is a former drug addict from Space Baltimore.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
One doesn't need to be crazy to believe that some leftist journo guy is a sexual abuser, but that doesn't mean a crazy person can't have that as a crazy-induced/influenced belief. See, for example, Freddie's really bad craziness episode.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
GRRM purportedly told the showrunners exactly where the show was going. But because he didn't flesh it out at GRRM levels of detail, the showrunners had to fill stuff in and didn't. Why did Daenarys turn evil? Clearly GRRM told the writers it's because all the people she loves get killed and she suffers a lot. But if he were to actually write it, he'd realize that Missandei getting killed isn't narratively sufficient.
It's the same reason that a lot of "software architect" type people are kind of disastrous - if they actually sat down and wrote code instead of making diagrams and saying "fill in the details", they'd realize where the actual hard parts live.
GRRM could probably have made it work, though maybe 2 books would have become 4. The TV writers couldn't.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
That sounds deflationary.
How does land values failing to increase result in CPI (an index of how much it costs to buy food, oil, clothing, rent a flat, etc) decreasing?
If this were a real concern, why not just print more money?
tikimixologist
1yr ago
On (2), most of the speculators aren't sitting on vacant land. They are sitting on underused land.
That's the same as it is now—why would I speculate in land I had no intention of selling?
For example, one may wish to capture a large and increasing stream of owner equivalent rent. (This is a major use case.) For example, one might speculatively buy a home in NYC in the 1970's and then continue to live in it until their death.
Generally speaking, most of truly distortionary problems in the US today consist of middle class people exploiting the system to gain long term stable revenue streams. (See also government pensions.)
Any improvements to efficiency of land use will be totally subject to zoning regulations.
Part of the value of an LVT is to tax land as if it's not in a NIMBY area in order to charge NIMBYs a high price for being NIMBYs. As in, consider local SF single family homeowners who prevent apartments from being built. Lets make them pay taxes as if their land were usable for apartments.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
There is no clear theoretical way to "gradually" introduce it and dampen the blow, as any long term plan if factored into market price will bring long term land value down to nothing.
This claim is simply innumerate.
Value of property = \sum pow(1- interest rate, N) x (income in year N - LVT in year N). Here N = # of years.
So here's how you can dampen it:
-
Raise interest rates above 0. (They are currently 4% or so.)
-
Set the horizon for the LVT some time in the future, say 10 years.
The end.
Presto, the contribution of N=0..10 has not been reduced at all, and the cost of the LVT in year 10 has been dampened by 33% (1-4% interest rate ^ 10), year 11 by 36% (=(1-4%)^11), etc.
This calculation assumes the discount rate for real estate == interest rate. But that's a gross underestimate - when interest rates were essentially 0%, 4-5% cap rates were typical and that implies real estate's discount rate is typically interest rate + maybe 3-4%. At a discount rate of interest rate + 4% = 8% (today), that suggests dampening of year 10's income by 57% rather than 33%.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
So I'm referring to software architect types who probably are competent, but also aren't doing a lot of coding anymore. The net result is grand plans that often fail, or succeed but overbudget, due to a lot of stuff just getting bogged down in bad ergonomics and day to day tasks that are harder than they should be. As a concrete example, I once worked on an ETL task run by a high level architect plus a bunch of fairly junior folks.
ETL tasks just dragged on, took forever, had lots of errors. One of the biggest errors was simply importing stuff to the wrong column, because the developer actually mapping json -> SQL had to manually map "input field_name -> integer column position in CSV file -> SQL loads the CSV". After about a year of delays due to transposing columns (return [...20 columns...row['foo']['bar'], row['baz'][0]...] when it should have been return [...row['baz'][0], row['foo']['bar']...]), a clever (new) junior dev finally figured out developers should just do return { 'foobar': row['foo']['bar'], ...} and wrote the system to translate 'foobar' -> column 23 by just checking the column order in SQL. Another example would be days added to any ticket just because setting up a testing env is a lot harder than it needs to be.
The key point here is that in neither case did the architect actually spend much time actually doing the task that was dragging on and slowing the project. If they spent a month doing that, they probably would have just fixed it without much notice. And once we got that one clever guy, it did get fixed.
As it relates to this example, from what I've read, GRRM is actually good at the details of writing. But since he's retired from writing, he's put into the "clueless architect" role, and the actual people doing the implementation are just not able to actually fill in the details.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
As I said:
GRRM could probably have made it work, though maybe 2 books would have become 4.
In that sense claim that race is socially constructed may mean that certain social aspects of race and its impact on daily lives of people is socially shaped even though it is obviously real in a sense that there are people with white skin and people with black skin.
That's the motte.
The bailey is that because race is socially constructed and not scientifically real, we can therefore assume any policy with disparate impact ("class starts at 10AM so show up before 10AM", "math questions have objective answers" or "don't beat up other children") is racist.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
It might be true of any ideology that the people who manage to actually get elected are social climbers, whereas the people with coherent visions live on the fringes.
Thiel and Bannon have coherent visions. From what I can tell, so do a few paleoconservatives like Paul Ryan and Ron Paul (though those are obviously not "new right"), as do those rare legitimate racists.
But from what I've read about Meloni, I'm not sure that being a single unmarried mother (though partnered to the father of her child) is in any real contradiction to her views. She seems like an Italian Nationalist, who thinks Italy and Italian culture is great, and that it's something which should continue in the world as opposed to getting blended into the Euro-globo-homogenization. This is a view informed by (Italian) Christianity, but it's not Christian nationalism - so criticisms of her for her typical Italian lifestyle don't really land.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
While I'm aware of the redefinition of "racism", the bailey I describe isn't that. Lets roll with your psychology example:
-
Psychological studies have little predictive value and people in the field don't seem very worried about replication or correctness.
-
Psychology is a science, and science tells us that if you don't do gender affirming care/body positivity/etc, people will do suicides and such.
Now, (1) is just an empirical claim. Point (2) may have some embedded prescriptive linguistics about what "science" should means (I guess not predictions that tend toward accuracy, or correction of errors based on empirics coming out the wrong way).
However, if you noticed, (2) actually has an embedded implicit assumption: namely that science makes predictions which are generally true, unlike critical theory or english literature. And in the psychology case, people don't bring out (2) when folks complain about (1).
We can similarly decompose discussions of racism and HBD:
-
The reason black people are underrepresented in technology is because black people for biological reasons lack the ability to write code, not race-influenced choices by people in technology.
-
It is racism to require the ability to code in order to hire someone as a programmer because of the disparate impact.
(1) is an empirical claim, (2) may be a claim about the prescriptive linguistics of "racism". But unlike the psychology case, people do bring out the prescriptive linguistics as if it somehow is relevant to (and refutes) the empirical claim (1). That's the bailey.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Fixed, thank you.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
I guess if you want to read, try to find transcripts of their speeches.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
No, they trot out "socially constructed" to refute (1). It's crazy to suggest a socially constructed identity would have biological effects, after all.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
The DNA test said 1/1024th Indian ~= statistical margin of error. But much of her career consisted of saying stuff that was nonsensical to any numerate person, but got credulously repeated and turned into political talking points by a media that existed to spread such talking points.
Now Mitt Romney or other cuckservative would have given up at this point, given that the media was against them. But Trump kept it up and people noticed how ridiculous her claim was.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
Another explanation for this is the following: it's really hard for a CEO to maintain focus across an organization, and most can only do it with very simple messaging.
-
"This year is about growth!"
-
After several years of :arrowup: "This year is about good growth, we won't lose more than $X per new customer."
-
2022: "This year is about cash flow positivity/profitability/not dying."
I work at a company where I'm dead certain the CEO and many execs understand all this at a very quantitative level. Nevertheless, the actual messaging that reaches us regular workers is just the bullet point. And the net result is that the way it plays out, $1 from CEO bullet point > $1 from other method. If you're pushing "get $1 via careful cost cutting" in a growth year, your project isn't funded and if you do it yourself it doesn't look as good in a promo packet.
Net result is that me and my manager - two PhDs of Quantitative Subject on a Quantitatively Make Money Team - pick our projects based as much on alignment with CEO messaging as we do on an estimate of how much money we'd make. Or alternately, we do the same projects (make the growth vs ROA efficiency frontier move outward) but our summary slide reports a horizontal shift (more of profit per customer-ish metric) instead of a vertical one (more growth at the same profit per customer).
And everyone does this. A year ago at my work, Internal Bureaucracy Team saved some money by building a no-code app in AirCodaJiraForce instead of renting the relevant SAAS product. No one cared. Also a year ago, Engineering Platform Team picked a >$100k hosted SAAS product with cool visualizations over OSS Project that only renders tables. As far as I know no one has used any visualizations. Now the latter choice is being rethought mainly because messaging changed.
tikimixologist
1yr ago
While I'm not a fan of HR, this characterization is not correct. Why would companies keep HR employees on the payroll at any time if they weren't providing value?
There are many theories of this, but labor hoarding is quite well established empirically. Cultural influences seem non-trivial - managers just don't like firing people. I once replaced someone with about 20 lines of code and kept them around doing the same job (producing a spreadsheet that was formerly read by a cron job, but is now read by no one) until I found an internal transfer for them.
https://s3.amazonaws.com/real-dev.stlouisfed.org/wp/2005/2005-040.pdf
Things I've admitted to thinking:
Trump seems pretty ok.
"I have sexdar. It's like gaydar, but I can predict pronouns with >99% accuracy!" Admittedly the trans thing was just starting but wasn't so crazy as it is now
Women aren't in tech cause they don't want to be.
Assorted environmental things
Poor people have it good in America and their problems are mostly self inflicted
I don't vote, no one should. (This was to a girl who was in some voting encouragement NGO.)
But again, I'm not arguing these points. I'm trolling, entertaining myself and exerting playful intellectual dominance. You can have a prediction contest, but the first bet involves the loser buying the next round of drinks and the second bet puts her at risk of losing clothing.
"It's so sad, Ben Shapiro is 100% right on everything yet he'll never know the love of a woman." If you aren't saying it with a smirk, don't say it.
I also can't stress enough that an important part of the delivery is being >6'1", benching your bodyweight and having flat abs.
More options
Context Copy link