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Notes -
What’s up with Russians who fled abroad at the start of the war nowadays? It looks pretty certain at this point that they won’t be conscripted and Russia won’t go bankrupt anytime soon. Has there been a silent remigration wave or are they just stay put in Georgia/Turkey/Kazakhstan wherever now
why you think so?
Even when the war was developing very dangerously for the Russian army they have only ran a very limited conscription scheme that amounted to “urged volunteering” of the lowest classes of the society. My understanding is that they sent summons to stg like 10 times the men they needed and as soon as the targets were reached by people voluntarily responding to the summons in 1-3 days they immediately ceased recruitment. I am not aware of any coerced conscription of a Russian man who would otherwise definitely not enter the army.
Right now the Russian army has a clear upper hand in fighting and reportedly a steady stream of volunteers. Meanwhile an incredibly disquieting amount of press gang/abduction style of conscription videos are coming out of Ukraine.
This is my reasoning for why there won’t be ever real conscription for this war in Russia. Russian speaking friends I have talked to seems to agree with this assessment
Operation Bagration was a clear upper hand. Right now, the Russian army is strong enough to exploit Ukrainian tactical failures, but nowhere near strong enough to create opportunities of its own.
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