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The stock market doesn't seem to think China will ever take Taiwan.
By many measures, the stock market is valued more richly than at any time in history except 1999 and 1929. Yet a Chinese invasion of Taiwan would cripple the world economy and send stocks plummeting.
There is an argument to be made that any war with China would lead to massive money printing and so, in dollar-denominated terms, stocks could thrive.
But this doesn't explain the stock markets blasé attitude. In the event of a Taiwanese invasion, some companies would be affected more than others. Apple would be crippled by the loss of its supply chain. But oil and steel companies would presumably profit greatly. This is of course not reflected in the stock prices. Apple is worth $3 trillion while U.S. Steel trades at a paltry $8 billion.
IMHO, the reality of Taiwan being invaded and/or blockaded and reintegrated into China is so nightmarish, everyone is instinctively recoiling from thinking seriously about it at all. Some people are probably just ignorant at how crucial TSMC is to the global economy, but everyone else is just sleepwalking or engaging in magical thinking. There is no world that exist where China doesn't at least try to assert control over Taiwan in the next 10 years. And the trying will likely be disastrous for industry as well.
I mean, why'd Chinese blow TSMC up ? By that point they'll have a better chip industry of their own, probably somewhat closer to state of the art than now but, but are unlikely to have caught up.
Americans would be due to massive loss of prestige probably unable to stop TSMC's non-US suppliers for working with it. And I don't think Chinese are the kind of die-hard scorched earth fanatics that they'd destroy TSMC rather than go on grinding out chips as before, with a new set of bosses.
Because China doesn't give a fuck about wrecking the world economy. I know a lot of people have selective amnesia about the COVID times, but come on.
They, and reportedly Xi in particular, care about correcting the historical wrong of a divided China. If there is a "short term" global economic crash and the semiconductor industry gets set back a decade, so be it. It's better than allowing a part of China to continue down the path of developing a unique, non-Chinese identity, which is a harder thing to undo.
Not every ruling power worships making numbers go up.
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