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How did the candidates do in terms of "it's not what you say, it's what they hear"? That is, we're not talking policy, just politics and feelings for the average undecided voter.
Trump dominated tonight. I think some voters could tell that Biden was more focused on policy, and he was much more specific about some things he did do and will do; I think they also noticed that Trump dodged a few questions, at times repeatedly and blatantly. But overall, it's no question at all. Trump sounded more like someone who cares and understands people than Biden. He was usually short and to the point, especially in the first half. He fell into some old habits, but did so with force and personality. He didn't even need to say anything other than raise an eyebrow as Biden melted down in his response about Medicare where he clearly lost his entire train of thought.
On abortion, Trump responded very vigorously about late-term abortions and clearly talks about exceptions, while Biden defended Roe, which seems tactically like at best a middling choice that pleases almost no one. On immigration, Biden took an "everything was good" tack and Trump talked about terrorism and violence, which is probably the more effective tactic. On veterans, a muddled and personal exchange about the losers and suckers quote, but Trump's logic (independent of whatever the fact is) seems more sound. Israel comes up, but nothing of substance is discussed. Biden talks about how a deal is near-done, while Trump implausibly claims it never would have happened with him at the helm and calls Biden a "weak Palestinian". We have a tussle about retribution and democracy, I don't know if anyone landed any body blows here, much of this info isn't new.
Worth noting that many viewers tune out in the first half hour or so, so this was the entire debate for them.
After the break, we see again the "what they hear" be so important. Trump talks about "clean air and water" while Biden talks about Paris and vague talk of pollution; Trump's framing here is always going to play better. Similarly to before, Trump dodges a question on childcare entirely, and he really hits Biden hard on being afraid to fire people when stuff goes badly. Biden seems to suggest, and does so again several times, that America is the best. Trump says the vibe is actually that things are going wrong and need fixing. Easily Trump wins the feelings side here, Biden framed this badly. Later on, when they start name-calling about the worst president (!!), Trump refers to Biden's bad poll numbers, and later, when they have some absolutely asinine smack talk about golf, (and confusing for non-golfers) Trump says "let's not act like children". Moral high ground, kind of crazy to see.
And the age question! Biden reminds voters, unhelpfully, that he's been in politics a long-ass time. Why would he think this is a good answer? Trump talks about his cognitive tests and says "knock on wood", which is quite frankly a pretty relatable answer. Biden brings up Trump's... weight?
They then accuse each other of starting WW3, which I don't think most undecided voters are going to have an opinion about. Closing arguments, Biden paints a picture of good progress on a handful of issues. This is okay. He improved a bit in the second half. Trump in closing is brutal, mimics Biden and makes fun of him, talks about respect being gone. I don't think he actually wins that many points here because of how personal some of this gets, which voters tend to dislike actually, but overall the impression is still vigorous and strong.
And there we have it. Biden is clearly declining, and Trump is just bringing back the Greatest Hits. Overall, the fundamentals of the race are still pretty similar, but I don't think anyone on the fence will swing left. The only undecided voter action will be pro-Trump, almost guaranteed (as a result of this debate). Focus group testing seems to agree quite strongly.
This.
Anybody who didn't watch the second half walked away (justifiably) thinking "the President is senile." And the number of short clips of Biden being utterly lost coming out of this will never cease. Trump didn't do anything we haven't seen him do before so any messaging along the lines of "unfit!" or "threat to democracy" really come across as old hat.
If Trump could get off of his weird sticking points (NATO funding, who said what about suckers and losers, etc.) he could've absolutely deleted Biden tonight. As it is, it's still probably a coin flip race and now the narrative - for a week or so - will be "Will Biden drop out." Any way you slice it, Biden's objective is probably to win back votes he probably tentatively had until this evening and Trump can more or less rest on structural advantage. The only way that shifts (structurally, I mean) is if the economy picks up some super unexpected good numbers.
Anyways - the two most important people in the election are now Kamala Harris and Jerome Powell. Where is my Alex Jones bat phone?
If Biden is depending on the economy getting better between now and November, there's no chance.
I don’t think it matters. People’s views are by and large locked in on the economy. I don’t think a bounce in the economy in the next few months will matter.
There's no room for a bounce.
PA is the most likely turning point state. Unemployment in PA is at 3.4%; living here I can verify that I pass multiple billboards from big businesses looking for workers, and every small business I know is desperate for help.
There is no functional room to improve that number between now and November. In 2012 unemployment declined from 9.6 in 2010 to 8.1 in 2012. That was a difference I felt all around me. We probably don't have room for even a .5% reduction this year. Inasmuch as there's an industrial reserve army at all, it's people who have dropped out of the workforce, and getting them back in is a five year project at least.
The actual economic issues we see, primarily housing and healthcare, aren't going to be addressed. Probably can't be, definitely not things Democrats are interested in doing.
There's no economic way out for Biden.
Surely the economic way out for Biden is that the economic vibes continue to drift in the direction of the actual state of the economy. Unemployment doesn't need to drop further in PA, voters just need to realise that it is at 3.4%
The election is close in a world where the median voter thinks the economy sucks. If the median voter realises that the economy does not, in fact, suck, then Biden wins on fundamentals.
I wrote that possibility off at this point. I just don't see any evidence that Biden is going to get better at selling his policies to the American people all of a sudden.
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