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How did the candidates do in terms of "it's not what you say, it's what they hear"? That is, we're not talking policy, just politics and feelings for the average undecided voter.
Trump dominated tonight. I think some voters could tell that Biden was more focused on policy, and he was much more specific about some things he did do and will do; I think they also noticed that Trump dodged a few questions, at times repeatedly and blatantly. But overall, it's no question at all. Trump sounded more like someone who cares and understands people than Biden. He was usually short and to the point, especially in the first half. He fell into some old habits, but did so with force and personality. He didn't even need to say anything other than raise an eyebrow as Biden melted down in his response about Medicare where he clearly lost his entire train of thought.
On abortion, Trump responded very vigorously about late-term abortions and clearly talks about exceptions, while Biden defended Roe, which seems tactically like at best a middling choice that pleases almost no one. On immigration, Biden took an "everything was good" tack and Trump talked about terrorism and violence, which is probably the more effective tactic. On veterans, a muddled and personal exchange about the losers and suckers quote, but Trump's logic (independent of whatever the fact is) seems more sound. Israel comes up, but nothing of substance is discussed. Biden talks about how a deal is near-done, while Trump implausibly claims it never would have happened with him at the helm and calls Biden a "weak Palestinian". We have a tussle about retribution and democracy, I don't know if anyone landed any body blows here, much of this info isn't new.
Worth noting that many viewers tune out in the first half hour or so, so this was the entire debate for them.
After the break, we see again the "what they hear" be so important. Trump talks about "clean air and water" while Biden talks about Paris and vague talk of pollution; Trump's framing here is always going to play better. Similarly to before, Trump dodges a question on childcare entirely, and he really hits Biden hard on being afraid to fire people when stuff goes badly. Biden seems to suggest, and does so again several times, that America is the best. Trump says the vibe is actually that things are going wrong and need fixing. Easily Trump wins the feelings side here, Biden framed this badly. Later on, when they start name-calling about the worst president (!!), Trump refers to Biden's bad poll numbers, and later, when they have some absolutely asinine smack talk about golf, (and confusing for non-golfers) Trump says "let's not act like children". Moral high ground, kind of crazy to see.
And the age question! Biden reminds voters, unhelpfully, that he's been in politics a long-ass time. Why would he think this is a good answer? Trump talks about his cognitive tests and says "knock on wood", which is quite frankly a pretty relatable answer. Biden brings up Trump's... weight?
They then accuse each other of starting WW3, which I don't think most undecided voters are going to have an opinion about. Closing arguments, Biden paints a picture of good progress on a handful of issues. This is okay. He improved a bit in the second half. Trump in closing is brutal, mimics Biden and makes fun of him, talks about respect being gone. I don't think he actually wins that many points here because of how personal some of this gets, which voters tend to dislike actually, but overall the impression is still vigorous and strong.
And there we have it. Biden is clearly declining, and Trump is just bringing back the Greatest Hits. Overall, the fundamentals of the race are still pretty similar, but I don't think anyone on the fence will swing left. The only undecided voter action will be pro-Trump, almost guaranteed (as a result of this debate). Focus group testing seems to agree quite strongly.
Other thoughts about the debate:
Dems are months and years behind on coalition-forming and deal-making if they wanted to replace Biden. It's possible they try, but it's almost certainly opening up a Pandora's Box that could look even worse. The "best-case" scenario here would be some bold-acceptable Dem stepping in, winning a shock election, and then governing with almost no one having any build-up to actually know what to expect. The consequences of that reality for American politics, populism, and democracy are so variable they could be far worse than any other option.
The next big decisions, unless someone creates new ones, are Trump's VP pick, and Trump's sentencing. Those both happen before the DNC convention.
I don't understand comments about the "policies" candidates discussed as such. One common argument I have heard, for instance, is that while Trump might have looked better, he lied more, or Biden's policies had more substance and depth. Sometimes I wonder why people watch debates. I don't watch them because I want to hear long technical answers about tax rates and regulations. I actually do want to watch these guys just smash into each other and rattle each other. This was actually something Trump did that made debates better -- they already lacked dignity and decorum a long time ago, and I think it's unserious to create this elaborated format where candidates are judged for how well they say things that don't mean anything. I watched the debate with one (conservative) friend who would say things like, "Ok, yeah, that was a good argument from Biden, I have to give it to him," and "I thought Trump was digging a hole for himself with this line, but I kind of see what he's doing, credit where credit is due." It feels to me like sitting in a time capsule. We all know the answers are fake, and then we sit around judging how well they were executed. I don't actually need the debates to know what a candidate's policies are, or to vicariously imagine how I would BTFO the other side if only I had been allowed to elaborate this specific point.
I saw a lot of conservative commentary before the debate wondering why Trump had accepted these terms -- CNN hosts were all biased against him, no live studio audience, debates worthless anyways, propping up legacy institutions, etc. etc. But it seems like Trump's bet paid off.
Actually fact-based arguments are the strongest and most interesting for me both to make and to hear. Idk about American scene but my debate club experience was much better cause of the culture that made personal attacks, lies and thousand year old logical fallacies unacceptable. Why would I want to listen to yelling and arguing not based on any evidence if I can get the same in any random conversation with stranger in the bar?
I had lunch at a Chuckee Cheese, and the service was terrible. The pizza was greasy and damp, and I was unimpressed with their varieties. They had never heard of a Sauvignon Blanc, and I had to settle for Coke. There were kids running around screaming, and it ruined the integrity of my meal. I won't be returning.
As in -- what did you expect? This is what American Democracy is like. Maybe it shouldn't be but it is. Scoring it like a high school debate is misunderstanding it entirely. Fixating on how well it would be scored as a high school debate is misunderstanding it at a deeper level. It's not one. It's not rational to pretend it is.
There is a 0% chance of winning a high school debate with the conservative position anyways, it's utterly dominated by the most absurd woke crap imaginable.
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