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Of the major Democratic candidates waiting in the wings, it seems clear that Newsom is the only viable candidate. And if you’re Newsom, why would you possibly replace Biden now?
This is likely the only shot at President the candidate that (theoretically) replaces Biden has. If Trump wins, the loss against such a villain will serve as the ultimate embarrassment and humiliation for the Dem nominee. Even if they argue that it was Biden’s fault, the base is unlikely to buy it and the attack that the candidate “let Trump win” will be difficult to shake off. This is particularly relevant as the white man quotient in the Dem party continues to decline, raising ever more questions about why the party for which only a (shrinking) minority of white men vote and which is predominantly PoC and female should again elect a white male candidate, especially a loser, over a woman and/or minority who doesn’t have the black mark of “letting trump win” on her resume.
The polls are not favorable to the Democratic Party for now. Even though the economy is arguably fine, people don’t believe it’s fine, housing costs are increasingly unaffordable for many people etc. Newsom would find himself running a campaign built around defending the unpopular record of a mediocre president, including possibly an ongoing war between Israel and Hezbollah depending on how that pans out by November. If Newsom runs against a Republican President or a Republican candidate after a GOP presidency, he can sell a purely optimistic vision without having to defend Biden’s record (he might have to defend his record in California, but most voters won’t care).
Trump still hasn’t built Trumpism into an actual movement that extends far beyond the personality cult when it comes to generating political figures who can take over his legacy. There are people who believe strongly in MAGA, certainly, but there are no incredible GOP candidates waiting for 2028. The non-Trump primary candidates this year were poor. Carlson probably won’t want to run and in any case still has a certain East Coast boarding school effete intellectual vibe to him, even with the log cabin studio. DeSantis is uncharismatic and greasy. There are options, but none of them seem likely to be close to as popular as Trump - certainly they are unlikely to have his pre-existing celebrity, wealth and talent for self-promotion. It wouldn’t even surprise me to see a Rubio return wrapped in a MAGA package, and that would be pretty dire. Gavin is stupid, but with enough training he would be fine against most likely GOP options in 2028.
The public’s desire for continuity often expires at the 8 year mark (if it does not do so earlier). A Democratic nominee who pulls off an upset and wins this year is going to be campaigning on 12 years of blue government in 2028, a proposal that hasn’t won in 70 years. The glory of a two-term presidency is much more easily attainable after the opposition is in power.
Amusingly, the only scenario in which Newsom would be smart to take over Biden’s candidacy would be if he genuinely believed that Biden was going to win. In that case, the 2028 race would be much harder for a Democratic candidate; Kamala would likely be the default pick for it’s her turn reasons and because Trump would have been safely defeated and probably too old and beleaguered to run again (allowing ideology to take precedence over raw candidate strength) and 16 straight years of Democratic control of the presidency seems very unlikely. If Biden wins, Newsom’s next good opportunity might be 2032 or even 2036, in which case he’d be 77 upon leaving office after 2 terms, and that seems like a slog.
I will dispute 3). Greg Abbott is not personally very charismatic but has an incredible amount of support among red voters on the basis of his record, is good at politics, and can stand on what's more than likely to be twelve years of a well-managed economy and relative racial peace. His weak spot is abortion but that issue is probably about as prominent as it's ever going to be. He's among Trump's favorites right now and all he has to do is maintain that spot to get the backing of Trump personally in 2028. It's unlikely that there's any kind of major scandal still undiscovered about him, either.
It remains to be seen if backing from Trump is even an asset in 2028. Trump kiss-asses don't have a great track record in elections, and while Abbot is certainly much more savvy than someone like Kris Kobach, if Trump loses this year it remains to be seen if Republicans continue to ride the Trump Train. Actually, if Trump loses this year it remains to be seen whether he can be persuaded to sit out in 2028. Yeah, he'll be 82 but he'll continue to talk about what great shape he's in, and he never gave a fuck about any Republican Party that he wasn't at the center of, so it's not like he'll be persuaded not to run. His own base is so dedicated that he'll suck up a large percentage of primary votes just by being in the race and any contender will need to stand head and shoulders above the crowd to have any kind of chance.
In general, I think it's premature to start talking about who the next big contenders will be. It wasn't that long ago that everyone thought Ron DeSantis was the future of the Republican Party. Unfortunately, he didn't kiss Trump's ring because he thought it would hurt his chances in Florida, ending any chance of being the heir apparent, and then compounded the error by running against Trump directly but refusing to criticize him. I outlined the challenges DeSantis faced here on several occasions and I remember getting heavily downvoted by merely suggesting that he wasn't all he was cracked up to be. Maybe it looks like Abbot is making all the right moves from where we sit now, but in four years those could easily turn out to have been the wrong moves.
Abbott has enough distance from Trump that he won't go down with the ship when Trump predictably fails to solve the US's biggest problems. Ensuring that is probably the main reason he turned down Trump's veepspot on live TV.
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