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Notes -
(Hoo boy, here I go!)
Biden's debate and technocrats' Mandate of Heaven
The Democratic Party is in a pickle after last Thursday's debate: their presumptive nominee's performance appeared to confirm his opponents' claims that his age was harming his ability to carry out his duties - but it is almost too late to replace him on the ticket.
Doing so after primary season and so close to the election would be tumultuous. His Vice President is - so the conventional wisdom has gone - considered unpopular enough that switching over to her would be just to jump to another losing proposition. Anybody else would have a very short window to establish their legitimacy as successor - it would probably be pretty chaotic.
Some think that wouldn't be that bad, such as Eric Levitz in this Vox article:
https://www.vox.com/politics/358461/replace-joe-biden-drop-out-kamala-harris
As presented, that hypothetical sounds okay to me, but I think there's a major problem that its use reveals. Is he claiming the parties are symmetric? I don't think that's how the Democrats want people to see things:
Right now, the Democrats (and pretty much the Western center-ish left overall) present their claim to rule as being deserved because they're the best at it. They are certainly not just photonegative Trump. No, they are the party of experts, the adults in the room, the best-of-the-best, the credentialed, the institutions. You can count on the left to do things right, unlike their manchildren opponents. They can be counted upon to not blunder when it matters.
But that means they have more to lose from obvious mistakes. Experts aren't supposed to make mistakes. Technocrats aren't supposed to look chaotic.
If Trump were in Biden's position, but otherwise himself, well - the chaos of replacing him would probably (though never say never) not be much greater than the chaos of sticking with him (supposing for this hypothetical that Trump has only Biden's kind of personal support base - not so in our reality!) When the dust settles, any replacement would be hard-pressed to be more of a loose cannon (though again, never say never!) Chaos is kind of the baseline there, but since I don't think it's overall a selling point, having to pick some emergency successor may turn out to be a positive in the long run, in that Vox hypothetical.
But the adults in the room are supposed to have steered us clear of emergencies. Ending up in this situation at all is a pretty fracturing blow to the desired perception of the Democratic Party as the systematically competent option. For how could they have let this happen?
Now, with enough narrative control, this perception probably could have been maintained. If the desire was to keep Biden, perhaps publicize claims made by Experts that Biden's debate performance - despite what laymen might think - showed that he was actually in excellent health, while Trump's showed that he very much was not, and anyone who questions this is some kind of undesirable. If the desire was to replace him, perhaps click one's tongue and say oh well, that one man had his chance, but now it's time to effortlessly switch to the Plan B that everyone always knew was waiting in the wings and is totally normal, laudable, and precedented, and anyone who questions this is some other kind of undesirable.
Abject panic from the ruling class (as shown by the pre-Elon Bluecheck class this past weekend) is the last thing that a technocracy should show if it means to preserve its mandate to rule.
This may yet be turned around. Maybe (surprisingly soon) all decent human beings will know that concerns about Biden's age or discussion of the June debate are to be replied to with "ugh, why are you so obsessed?" or similar, and raw social force will be enough to get people to act like they forgot this crack in the mask. Or maybe not. But if not, then this isn't just one bad debate, or even one bad candidate: the Expert Class must then face the question of just how expert they are, and if they're not: what are they?
With everyone focused on the election, little attention is being paid to what would otherwise be an obvious question in light of the new scrutiny on Biden's health: Is he even fit to continue being president for the remainder of his term? In a vacuum, I think most of us would prefer for a leader who is not capable of doing their job to step down -- or be made to step down by those with influence. As much as I might not like the replacement currently on-deck, I would prefer a gesture of civic responsibility over what is looking increasingly like a desperate grip on power.
If everyone now assumes that Biden -- if he remains upright -- will hand it over to his VP after his inauguration, then why persist with an obvious charade through the election? That's surely sapping voter enthusiasm. There would seem to be a greater upside to clearing the deck prior to the election, just for the refreshing honesty of it.
We've been very short on gestures of civic honesty and responsibility recently, and I will take what I can get.
Biden is not going to hand it over to Harris after the election. He wants power, and he doesn't want to let it go now he has it.
All the talk of Biden stepping down is deluded. There's only two options on the table - election defeat or 25th amendment.
Hey now, there's definitely a third option.
If I were Biden, I'd keep an eye out for stray banana peels.
Like I said I don't think he'd get to the age he's at, if he didn't have a knack for that.
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