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Notes -
Is non-public information leaking into election betting markets?
Prior to the debate, on Predict It, Biden had something like an 85% chance to secure the Democratic nomination. After the debate, his odds fell to around 60%. By last night, it had eroded further to 50%.
Last night the flippening happened. The bottom fell out of Biden shares and went to Kamala. As of this moment, Kamala Harris trades at 51% and Biden is at just 29%.
As far as I can tell nothing has changed since 24 hours ago, so what gives? A few possibilities I can think of:
Someone is manipulating the markets to create a false consensus. I think this is the most likely. Mega-donors will spend billions on this election. A Biden campaign is doomed. Spending a couple million to move markets could have an outsized effect.
Non-public information is leaking. A source high in the Democratic party is talking and his friends are betting.
A whale is making a giant bet. I view this as the least likely because moving the market this much tends to be extremely unprofitable. Without inside info, this would be a very stupid bet.
Edit 1: I wouldn't rule out manipulation, but it does seem there was some public information to move the market.
Edit 2: Michelle Obama is up to 12%, which is the same as Newsom. Normally, the lower percentage bets are not liquid, but 12% rises to the level of "something, not nothing". Michelle Obama solves the Kamala Harris problem. And if we're electing useless figureheads she's better than Biden. But does she even want to run?
2, but it's less heirarchal than you're thinking. A chunk of prominent insiders have decided to see if they can push out Biden. They are getting the press to run damaging stories and contacting other Dems to rally support.
So there are a lot of people who know what's going on, it's not just their close friends.
Michelle Obama's name always comes up on these things because she's one of the few prominent people that the Dems could unite behind easily. I don't think she wants it. Her current life involves hanging out with celebrities and the super wealthy who all tell her how awesome she is. Then she gets paid to give talks to people who tell her how awesome she is.
There's nothing in her history that suggests she'd rather go to Michigan and listen to the problems of the hoi polloi. Or that she's particularly interested in having to make decisions about geopolitics.
Looking at the "Career" section of her Wikipedia page, while Michelle Obama has been involved in politics plenty, she's never even run for an elected position herself. I really can't see the Democrats going for her, in addition to her being pretty clear about not wanting the job.
I don't think the Democrats would let a wee thing like qualifications or experience stand in their way. And there is an argument to be made that Barack Obama and his former staff would just run the show anyway.
Obviously, it's not great for our nation when spouses and reality TV stars win office, but the culture war is hot enough that people want victory more than doing the right thing and losing.
The only impediment is her not wanting the job. She now enjoys a sterling reputation that would certainly be tarnished rather quickly if she ran.
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