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Notes -
On the topic of a small number of relatively 'known' people being involved in an outsized portion of the crime problem
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AI is sometimes allowed to say things that are otherwise not allowed to be said, so long as they make sure to say that it's definitely not racist
Machine Learning Can Predict Shooting Victimization Well Enough to Help Prevent It is the name of the paper. They took arrest/victimization records in Chicago and tried to predict who was likely to be shot in the next 18 months. 644,000 people in the data; of the top 500 with the highest predicted risk, almost 13% were shot. That's the top line. 13% accuracy might not seem like much, but they claim that the rate is 128 times higher than that of the average Chicagoan. For context, that's 64 shooting victims over an 18mo period. I don't know what the total 'shot but maybe didn't die' rate is, but Chicago has in the ballpark of 600 homicides (by all means) each year.
This is not about who did the shooting; it's about who was shot. The implicit argument is that most shooting victims are close enough to the criminal world. Even if they were just purely victims before, it is at their doorstep. Plausibly, if a little old lady just happens to live in a really terrible neighborhood and had to report being the victim of various prior crimes, this could indicate that she is also at risk of getting shot, too.
They definitely go out of their way to say that, yes, Black males are more likely to have prior data in the system, but that the system still predicts with similar accuracy across demographics.
I don't know how practical these sorts of things will be to actually use for any purpose, but this paper dropping is definitely adding some fuel for the folks who think that a variety of criminal problems are mostly concentrated within a relatively small subset that could, at least in theory, be somewhat identified.
Do you really need machine learning or AI to do this analysis? I feel like if you gave me arrest records in an excel spreadsheet with data I could 65% of this just eyeballing and 95% if I did some regressions in excel.
My guess is you already assumed my point, and your main point is maybe outsourcing this to AI gets you thru the politics some how.
No you don't, but you gotta get those buzzwords in if you want to get the clicks.
Saying that you used "machine learning" is so much cooler and "truthy" than making a list of everyone under 30 who's been riding with the Hell's Angels or hanging out with Crips.
Everyone here or like 98% knows this, but the average reader it’s probably 3-5% knows this fact.
My money would be on the reverse.
My suspicion is that most users here don't know how to spot a drug house or potential ambush where as 98% of regular folk (or at least those that have had some experience with the seedier elements of society) do, and thats why this result is being treated as novel.
Specifically meant the math bit. That this doesn’t require AI but simpler stuff.
You are probably right that society realizes a hells angel guy is more likely to die than the average citizen. I do think this place has their eyes wide open and could compete with the average guy but typical blue tribe might not.
I may have been being a little uncharitable there.
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