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The new arrivals are, indeed, refugees, but even before the war, Poland was actually swamped by “temporary” workers from Ukraine. But that’s not the point: the difference between Ukrainians in Poland vs Africans in Germany or Sweden is not so much based on legal status, but rather cultural similarity. If US today got mass immigration from English Canadians, who just happened to speak as incomprehensibly as rural Scottsmen, but quickly learn local dialect, it wouldn’t be seen as that big of a deal, compared to mass immigration from Latin America. This is closer to the today’s relationship between Poles and Ukrainians, despite recent history of genocide of Poles perpetrated by Ukrainian nationalists (unlike with Blacks in US, in Europe grudges are not so persistently held, especially if they happen to become very inconvenient due to changing political realities).
The issue I see with it is that they're building an infrastructure and customs to welcome and accommodate refugees. This attracts a certain type of people that will not leave once the current Ukraine crisis is over.
It's a slippery slope.
What if Turkey has a civil war, or even Germany, which is starting to look a lot like Turkey, demographically-speaking, aren't they too 'neighbors' etc?
The current wave of refugees is women with children, which is much different than single young males from Africa. If they end up staying, then given cultural similarity, that’s a win too, considering the dire state of demographics in developed world. Germany will not have civil war, and if Turkey has one, Poland simply will not admit any of them, as it did not admit the big wave of Middle East refugees a few years ago, or the ones trying to illegally crossing through Belarus.
What you seem to be missing is that the current government of Poland, as much as they screw around with the rule of law and principles of republican government, they are not hostile to their average constituents, in a way that, say, US government often is. This reduces the downside risk.
They are not hostile to their constituents but deepening the ties to governments that are.
The power imbalance between Poland and US is not in Poland's favor, they will not be able to keep protecting their people.
I think the Polish people is underestimating the risk of staying in the same failing boat as the EU / US.
You keep repeating the same point, and keep failing to look at the other side of that line: of what things look like for pro-Russian countries. They're doing worse. Much worse. The Poles know this, the Ukrainians know this, just-about everyone who isn't an internet contrarian knows this. Why do you insist all of these people are wrong?
Worse by what metrics?
Economic? Aesthetically, culturally, spiritually...?
All of these people are wrong because they contradict themselves when they say they don't want to look like Brussels yet take steps to align themselves further with Brussels.
From a historical point of view, most people's current behavior is wrong. The fact that outgroup birthrates are cratering is a signal that something they are doing is wrong. History will be written by those who will show up in 50 years.
By yours and mine alike. You keep returning to birthrates, birthrates, birthrates the way many on the right do, and Russia is at a cool 1.5tfr, with ethnic Russians skewing even lower than that. My nation skews higher than that, as does most of the EU: be they Czechs, Danes, Irish, or Romanian, these people will do better at 'showing up' in 50 years than the Russians will.
Again, Brussels does not have any battalions, and neither does the ECHR. This is 'old man yells at cloud' levels of silly. The Poles get to do what they want within their territory, the Germans get to do what they want in theirs, we Dutch get to do what we want in ours, and blithely insisting that surely the spooky EU will always get its way is, plainly, wrong. I genuinely want to know if you have anything to back these ideas up that isn't mere assumptions; scaremongering about the EU is plentiful and easy, precisely because it doesn't defend itself much and makes for a wonderful scapegoat. It even does many things, in regulation and diplomacy. But turn Warsaw into Brussels? Absolutely not.
That's been true for a thousand years or more. Is that really the best you've got?
Indeed, the Russian state is a failed one and the morally correct course is for it to step aside in favor of people who can correct this. Yes.
Not if they succumb to the EU/NATO.
The most powerful weapon has been TV for a while.
Brussels opens the market and the borders, the American propaganda apparatus takes care of the rest.
That was a quote from Mariusz Błaszczak Deputy Prime Minister, Minister of National Defence Responsible for all activities of the Armed Forces of the Republic of Poland.
Russia is transitioning from a state-mandated atheist country to a more Christian-friendly one. Of course they have a long way to go, after the soul of the Russian people was crushed by nefarious ideologies.
In some ways, Poland is going the other way.
Denmark is a founding member, Czechia and Romania joined as soon as they could. Talk sense.
Powerful enough that all of Europe rallies behind Ukraine regardless of ideology - Hungary, Serbia, and Belarus nonwithstanding.
Yes, and this works out for them just fine. It also works out for the rest of the EU just fine. It doesn't work out for the worldview you keep insisting is right, but EU citizens and leaders don't need to entertain your worldview as much as I choose to.
Russia is transitioning towards being a crater, a more northerly Balkans, a wasteland, or halfway Islamic itself. The United States is far better at being Christian - and so is Poland, so long as you are Catholic.
Polish tfr trended down for years upon years until it joined the EU, and it has only ever gone up since then. Getting free money works. It has never not worked for them.
Did you have a view that statistics seem to back up, too? None of what you're saying checks out, and these numbers aren't secret or hard to find.
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