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I'm still wondering what got Amazon hooked to a billion dollar disaster. After all initial (imo misplaced) optimism, analysts are finally coming out and saying the quiet part out loud: it is not the ground breaking masterpiece they need it to be. Even HoD is performing better and is better received. Both are prequels to very popular IPs, but Rings of Power should be pulling enormous numbers given how expensive it is, and how extensive its marketing was. Despite worsening performance with every episode, they just renewed it for season 2. This wasn't a small and calculated risk, they literally staked the future of their whole studio on this show. What made them think hiring subpar writers, rewriting lore, rewriting characters of one of the most popular fantasy IPs while simultaneously drafting off of the brand was a good idea? It feels like the motive isn't even to make money but solely to push an agenda, but who would do that? Given the sheer scale of the project, I just cannot believe any studio would be so careless as to commit such a serious misfire.
Bezos's 2016 letter to shareholders:
https://www.aboutamazon.com/news/company-news/2016-letter-to-shareholders (read the whole thing, it's interesting)
On the subject of "Escalate and Disagree"
"This isn’t one way. If you’re the boss, you should do this too. I disagree and commit all the time. We recently greenlit a particular Amazon Studios original. I told the team my view: debatable whether it would be interesting enough, complicated to produce, the business terms aren’t that good, and we have lots of other opportunities. They had a completely different opinion and wanted to go ahead. I wrote back right away with “I disagree and commit and hope it becomes the most watched thing we’ve ever made.” Consider how much slower this decision cycle would have been if the team had actually had to convince me rather than simply get my commitment.
Note what this example is not: it’s not me thinking to myself “well, these guys are wrong and missing the point, but this isn’t worth me chasing.” It’s a genuine disagreement of opinion, a candid expression of my view, a chance for the team to weigh my view, and a quick, sincere commitment to go their way. And given that this team has already brought home 11 Emmys, 6 Golden Globes, and 3 Oscars, I’m just glad they let me in the room at all!"
I like to imagine that Bezos understood the difficulties inherent in this project. Or at least some of them. Maybe I'll write a Bezos fanfic one day.
Also: whether or not to make a LotR TV show sounds like a decision for a prediction market to make. "Conditional on us making a LotR TV show, will it be a success?"
Additional discussion topic: what IP-driven tv show should Amazon have made instead?
Reply hazy, try again.
"Will it be a success?" Okay, giving Peter Jackson the directing shot at the movies was a huge gamble, and it paid off. But even he had commercial success under his belt, and a track record. That didn't mean he could do it, but it was some indication that he knew his arse from his elbow regarding film-making.
These two guys were a gamble, and it didn't work out. Just being unknowns, or unlikely, is not enough. They've never had a successful script going on to be made - they were involved in writing the last reboot Trek movie, but didn't even get writing credits on it. So that's not a good sign.
All the publicity about diversity and inclusion was another bad sign; they were selling the show on "Watch this or else you're a bad thinker" (I understand Billy Eichner is trying the same thing to shift the blame for his movie flop ).
The potential is there, I understand compressing the timeline, I understand wanting to have all the major figures interacting even if in canon there are thousands of years between them and they never met, I understand needing to create original characters.
But there's enough in the bare outlines of the Second Age to make several seasons of a show (five seasons worth? I can't say) even if they stick to canon. The aftermath of the War of Wrath, with Morgoth defeated and Sauron fled, and the remaining Elves in Middle-earth. Building their new realms. Celebrimbor and the Jewel-Smiths taking over in Eregion and forming links with the Dwarves of Khazad-dum (and all the Elrond-Durin stuff in the show should be Celebrimbor-Narvi, seeing them collaborate and become friends). Arrival of Annatar. The forging of the Rings of Power. The build up to the first big climax: the war of the Elves and Sauron, the invasion of Eregion, the death of Celebrimbor (come on, the Orcs hung his body on a pole to be a battle-banner, tell me that isn't going to be a great 'eat your heart out, House of the Dragon' moment!)
Huge battle-scene as Elrond is pressed by Sauron's forces, and just when it looks like all is lost, the Dwarves storm out of Khazad-dum, kick Sauron's backside, and enable the Elves to flee while the Dwarves fall back into Khazad-dum and slam the doors shut in Sauron's face. Oh man, that would be epic.
The rise of Númenor, greatest of human kingdoms, and its turn from friendship to bitter envy and then outright enmity. The huge ports and settlements it built in Middle-earth, and how they became colonisers and exploiters. But first, as Sauron is moving all over Middle-earth and having it his way, and it looks like Lindon will fall, the Númenorean fleet finally shows up (after Gil-galad had sent an appeal for help years ago) and give him a sound thrashing so that he has to flee with only a small force to lie low and lick his wounds.
Things get darker in Númenor, eventually ending up in rebellion and civil war, and the seizing of the throne by Ar-Pharazon. You're building up to the big climax, of Ar-Pharazon landing in Middle-earth, cowing Sauron's forces merely by turning up, and Sauron deceitfully surrendering, going back to Númenor, corrupting it (human sacrifice in the Temple at Armenelos) and eventually convincing Ar-Pharazon to sail on Valinor, where we get the breaking of the world and the Great Wave destroying Númenor. EDIT: And please note, "massive fleet and impressive army" is MORE THAN FIVE NO THREE 'COS TWO EXPLODY SHIPS AND A BUNCH OF TEENAGERS WHO DON'T KNOW WHICH END OF A SWORD IS THE POINTY BIT.
And for our final season, the War of the Last Alliance, ending in the finale where the LOTR movies start up: Isildur cuts the ring off Sauron's finger but refuses to destroy it.
You don't have to mangle lore, you don't have to invent stupid stories about Silmarils in a tree being hit by lightning forming mithril, and you don't have to make Galadriel into a thundering bitch.
I don't know if this is something you've seen, but the Tolkien Untangled guy is doing a sketch of how he'd put together five seasons of The Rings of Power, given roughly the parameters provided. Good news/bad news--his version is well done but unlikely to get Bezos-bucks; I may have teared up a bit over how he wanted to cold-open S1E1.
How 'The Rings of Power' Should Have Been Written
Tolkien Untangled is cool, would definitely recommend newcomers to the monumental lore.
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What?
The issue isn't about whether or not Amazon should make a LOTR show, or what should they do instead, it's about how they make it.
I think there are reasons not to make a lotr show at all. Politics, IP rights issues, Game of Thrones ending poorly, lotr being an inherently difficult property to work with because of its focus on the ineffable and deep lore, etc.
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