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So, the NATO-Russia prisoner swap is a done deal now.
On the one hand, prison swaps are a staple trope of the cold war. Instead of letting professional spies rot in prison, swapping them is a win-win.
On the other hand, this seems not what was happening here. Going through the list, you have:
Some thoughts on this.
With regard to Krieger, there are three possibilities. Either he is innocent, then trying to make concessions to get him back will just mean that more Germans will get arrested to serve as hostages. Or he is guilty and was carrying out sabotage for the Ukranians, in which case the negotiations should be left to the Ukranians. Or he is guilty but was acting on behalf of Germany. In that case, the German agencies have some serious explaining to do, but they might rationally want to get him back.
With regard to Krasikov, it is important to remember that Putin has been enacting murders (and attempts) in Europe with impunity, sometimes with flashy means such as Polonium-210 and neurotoxins. Sometimes an agent gets caught and convicted to life is literally one of the only drawbacks of that policy.
Now, it has been pointed out that his victim was a jihadist of the kind the West likes to eliminate with missile strikes, and it is hypocritical to cry foul on Russian assassinations but not Western ones. Honestly, I don't see it -- there are a few important differences between Ismail Haniyeh, recently killed by an Israeli missile strike, and Zelimkhan Khangoshvili, who was shot by Krasikov. For one thing, the latter was not running a terrorist organization from Berlin, and the chances to get the Germans to extradite him to Russia likely were much higher (back in 2019) than the chances of the Iranians extraditing the Hamas leader to Israel. Also, Germany does not have a history of providing short range missiles to the Baltic countries which these then routinely fire into Russia.
From a Great Game perspective, I think this exchange was a clear win for Putin. Apart from the agents exchanged on either side, he got his hitman back and paid for with a few domestic dissidents nobody cares about, plus the odd Westener taken hostage.
I think that there are two main reasons why he came out ahead on that deal. First, he can deploy much harsher punishments, thereby increasing the pressure for a diplomatic solution. Russian penal colonies are likely a bit harsher than German prison. The other reason is that as an absolute ruler, he has to cater less to public opinion (even though he did get great photo ops out of it). If some Russian citizen is sentenced to death in some shithole country with a terrible human rights record, Putin can just sit this out and tell the media to burry the story. If a German citizen is sentenced to death in Belarus, Scholz can not simply state his objection, but also indicate an unwillingness to make any deals because this would make Germany vulnerable to all sorts of blackmail and thus be bad policy, because the average voter does not understand this.
I am looking forward to other countries like Iran or the Taliban regime trying this. "That bomb-throwing jihadist you have in prison? We really like him back. In exchange, we offer you a bunch of women who were sentenced to death for violating Sharia law, plus the your odd citizen we captured."
I would guess that the "he was acting on behalf of Ukraine" story is correct, but Ukraine is not about to burn any trump cards on rescuing impressionable Germans (who I have anecdotal evidence Ukrainians mostly only feel disdain for) and as long as it is essentially German government policy to gently encourage its citizens to make sacrifices for Ukraine that go above and beyond what they feel they can defend as official policy, it would be counterproductive for them to not take the opportunity to bail him out.
Sure, but this is already a low bar. Chechens (who even the SJW contingent of Western Europe seems to need to hold their noses about) are one thing, but Khangoshvili had aligned himself with the pro-European forces in Georgia, who continue to be the EU's baby; his likelihood of extradition would have been in the ballpark of that of the US extraditing some Chinese dissidents to the PRC.
I have heard some rumours that he continued supporting (materially? ideologically?) the Caucasus Emirate which is generally recognised as one, though this is one of those cases where it's impossible to discern what portion of claims/counterclaims/debunkings is credible.
All in all, I do agree that Putin comes out looking like the winner here to an extent that makes me wonder what was in it for the Western side. Are they hoping that they could reanimate the white-blue-white-flag exile opposition with the emergency injection of Kara-Murza? Was there some secret addendum with further favours that are not being made public for PR reasons (e.g. Russia releasing more valuable spooks or unambiguous terrorists)? Is this meant to establish goodwill for future trades (e.g. Griner)?
Return of reporters in exchange for support of Harris.
So, we should expect a column from Evan Gershkovich in support of Harris?
No need for them to be that obvious about it. Just more favorable coverage from the WSJ in general.
Pay attention kids, that's how a pro traps his prior.
That's how a pro avoid an obvious gotcha.
It's not a gotcha to expect beliefs to interface with reality in an observable way.
It's certainly a gotcha for you to make a prediction on my behalf.
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