Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.
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Notes -
A little maneuver warfare, as a treat.
~72 hours ago Ukraine launched an incursion into Kursk oblast, and have made it to the town of Sudzha, 10 km from the border. At least two brigades have been committed. Some air defence has also been active in the region, making it challenging for the VKS to operate. It's too early judge what the goal is, and officials have yet to comment. The response from Russian officials won't shock anyone.
Some notable features:
Surprise! In the last year plus of fighting both Ukraine and Russia have opted for more dispersed formations, as large masses of men and metal tend to get spotted and shelled pretty quickly. The ubiquity of drone+satellite intel meant that either side getting caught flat footed on the frontline was not on many bingo cards.
Despite the manpower disadvantage and shortages Ukraine is still willing to commit men to riskier operations like this.
The tempo of Russian assaults in Donbas remains unchanged, for now.
Some thoughts:
With the middle east stealing all the oxygen in the international news room Ukraine has been out of the new cycle for awhile. It's been even longer since it's had a high profile win. So a strong motivator for Ukrainian strategists is likely to be to get some positive press and a morale boost.
Life or
deathpromotion for Gerasimov? Russia probably shouldn't haven't been caught off guard. I find it increasingly likely that like Shoigu before him, Gerasimov will be promoted into a position where he remains close to Putin, but his incompetency can do the least harm. And someone less-loyal-but-more-competent will be found to fill his shoes.I like a good blitzkreig as much as the next guy, but is this, like... actually a defensible salient? It doesn't really look like it, and throwing a bunch of guys into a new meatgrinder to attract some media attention seems not only morally reprehensible, but also (since I'm sure we're long past the point where that matters) pretty bad strategy for a country currently engaged in a war of attrition against an opponent with many more resources to attrit?
It sort of maybe does to me? There is some sort of a river going through Sudzha, which sounds by default nicer to defend than the original state border. I was pessimistic at the start, thinking there was no way UA wouldn’t stall out before reaching the river bank, and now optimistic again since they did. (Well, in Google street view the river looks very puny so this might be wishful thinking)
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