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What do our more military-minded posters make of the current Kursk incursion of Ukrainian forces into Russia?
The battle lines inside Ukraine proper have become essentially immobile, so it seems Ukraine has at least found a softer place in which to strike. But it's not clear to me what the strategic objective of this operation is. Is it essentially a feint to draw Russian troops away from defending conquered Ukrainian territory? Is the plan to claim Russian land to negotiate land swaps with when the time comes for peace talks? I don't see how it directly gets the Ukrainians any closer to their goal of evicting the Russians from Ukraine.
I will make this post with the prior that I personally favor the Ukrainians and their cause.
I do not like warfare by media spectacle. Insomuch as this is a victory, it is giving the Ukrainians a positive media cycle. What strategic value was gained here? Has the overall situation changed much? It is very much stinks of desperation. Perhaps if you subscribe to vibes-based warfare it is a victory worth talking about. It embarasses Gerasimov (and Putin by proxy.) Who cares? Gerasimov is a nincompoop. He is a butcher and a moron, but even a moron can hold a trench line.
The memory holed offensives with the much-hyped Western equipment half a year ago destroyed much material and good men for no gain at all. I also believe that they wanted a good media cycle before the NATO conference. Zelensky's generals seem to be strategizing, not to win the war, but to get the best headlines in the west. Why are they doing this? I don't know. Why aren't they trying to win the war? Why are they spending manpower and material on what are essentially photo ops?
The only comparable situation I can imagine from history is Republican Spain throwing an excess of resources to holding Madrid, of planning offensives for newspapers and prestige. The Republicans lost for many reasons, but they lost, because they weren't fighting to win. Can the Ukrainians even win? I suspect that their American backers need political cover to continue their aid.
You seem to be assuming that the most straightforward avenue "to win the war" is also the most viable for Ukraine to take. It reads as "just break the Russians' offensive head-on, bro", but in more words.
My impression is that they, in fact, believe that with the resources available they can't just break the Russians' offensive head-on, or otherwise accomplish straightforward victories that would be legible to you as "trying to win the war", so they're going for headline victories. Which aren't nothing.
Then what, exactly, is all of this western aid paying for?
What is the length of commitment necessary from the West for Ukraine to win the war?
I think the average American is happy to support Ukraine, less happy, if it proves to be a Afghanistan-level commitment. Open-ended conflicts with no clear objective is the kind of foreign entanglement I do not like.
Presumably to bleed Russia of manpower and materiel. Ukraine definitely isn't winning the war right now, but Russia's eventual victory (barring some sort of black swan event like an internal coup or civil war etc.) will definitely be a Phyrric one. Russia will likely become a client state of the Chinese (see China already bending Russia over on petroleum deals), the embarrassing performance of a lot of their systems (like the S-400) will cause tons of nation states to turn to other suppliers for arms. The widespread incompetence seen in the Russian military is unlikely to lead to significant or lasting reforms.
In the end Russia will likely secure a peace deal that gives them Crimea officially (along with a land bridge connecting it, basically the territory that Russia currently controls). But at tremendous cost to their capabilities and their place in the world order.
For me any ideas I had of Russia being able to go head to head against NATO were obviously wrong after the failed Kiev offensive at the start of the invasion. Russia clearly can't into logistics when they don't have uncontested railways within 50 km of where they're operating. Logistics is what wins wars, and has ever since the advent of modern weapons/air power/etc. have made armies unable to support themselves solely on raping and pillaging the countryside. See America's barge dedicated to making ice cream for troops in the Pacific vs. Japan not even having enough fuel for their remaining fleet by the end of WW2 (and the US also had several more ice cream barges serving the European theater).
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