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Well, this is the Trump experience. I mean this debate. He started out really strong, was totally defeating Harris for the first ten minutes or so. Then he just couldn't help but start rambling and making unforced errors. Why decide to bring up abortion and ramble about ninth month abortion? That's not one of the Republicans' strengths. Why bring up Marxism? Outside of the highly online left and right, people generally think of Marxism as some boring thing from decades ago, not as an important issue. Why bring up the Springfield pets thing? That's another highly online issue that plays weird to normies.
Why not just focus on your strengths of crime, the economy, and immigration? He's starting to try to pivot more back to those now, but now he's rambling and raising his voice and acting defensive, which looks bad.
This guy has always sucked at debates other than in the 2016 primaries and when he got to go up against Biden a few months ago, but almost anyone could have won that debate against Biden.
Kamala is a competent but relatively weak debater, a strong debater could easily run rings around her. But Trump has learned nothing, it seems, from past debate performances. He keeps making the same kinds of unforced errors and making himself look bad. He can't stop himself from getting defensive and rambling and bringing up stuff that most people don't care about, or even stuff that favors his opponent.
If he could have just stayed calm and focused, he would have this debate in the bag by now. Instead he is fumbling it. How the fuck can a man have nine years of experience at politics and political debating and not learn the simple lesson of staying calm and looking calm and tough when the context makes it the right decision, instead of getting flustered and emotional all the time?
The greatest Trump sin of 2024 is that he has lost the touch. All the criticisms of his rambling, incoherence, inchoate arguments or whatever, all that is secondary to his greatest strength: hitting the opponent where it'll hurt.
Crooked Hilary resonated as there was sufficient baggage in the info sphere to make it plausible that she was a corrupt incompetent burying bodies on her path to unearned power. Sleepy Joe was obvious to everyone who actually saw Biden speak from 2023 onwards, regardless of right-wing twitter edits. Lyin Ted, Fat Chris, etc... its all the same principle.
And if its not personal, its hitting on values. 2016 Trump hit the immigration nail beautifully with Build The Wall, and he got supercharged with the anger of normies following the Deplorables incident. Frankly he should have swung for the fences in 2020 with Defund the Police, but he fumbled the responde and Biden disavowed Defund from the start, leaving that round a dud in the Trump gun.
That was then. Now? He's got JD Vance, an attack dog that is whining more than biting, a right wing media ecosystem catastrophizing Ring Of Fire disasters out of very real but currently statistically ineffective culture war pain points, and weak attacks against Kamala. He isn't funny, he isn't hitting the pain points of economy and immigration with sufficient focus, and he's ultimately BORING.
Even the supercuts of Trump best lines are boring and inaudible. Theres nothing funny about HIS attacks on Harris and the Democrats, and without that what do we have? A boring rambly mess that doesn't even make me angry at the democrats.
Overall an absolute fumble for Trump. His concept of a plan to win is less tangible than SV pre-ideation startups that strode into VC offices with a dream and a rejected application to Caltech.
Yeah, the campaign feels very online. The Haitian thing is incredibly specific and the sort of thing you think lands when you follow too many DR accounts.
It feels like in 2016 Trump was saying things that people felt but couldn't hear on cable news or the debate stage. Now it feels like he's digging up things a lot of the people who wanted that would see as the theories of online weirdos.
The Haitian question is a race between whether right wing researchers can dig up a case that gets close enough for plausibility before someone insane yelling about cats murders a Haitian or beats them up with a baseball bat or burns down a house full of migrants. A sort of stochastic terrorism roulette.
It's catchy, but dangerous.
That's actually optimistic. IMO it's just dangerous and the damage has already been done.
My take is that it doesn't matter if they pull up a case. It's already too late at this point.
Unless Trump went into the debate with multiple, verifiable (as in "caught in 4K video") cases it was always going to seem crazy and be easy to dismiss.
I think the idea that this is what gets John and Jane Q finally onboard is the sort of thing jaded internet people who've seen Democrats seemingly escape every single "immigrant t-bones/rapes/robs citizen" story thinks will finally land and cause the scales to fall from the eyes of the nation. It won't. It just looks weird to even bring up and people will recoil. If they don't Google it, see the first mainstream outlet and fuck off.
The truth is that Democrats in the real world (as opposed to online leftists who have a clear incentive to never cede an inch) aren't getting away with it; people are already dissatisfied with Democrats on immigration (which is why they tried to deal) and the polling indicates this is one of Trump's (or any Republican's) strongest issue and the one where he has the most credibility relative to his Democratic opponent.
It's just that Trump is unpopular enough (and has a flexible enough relationship with the truth) that it's still close. If it was anyone else you likely wouldn't need the dogs and cats thing in the first place. And it certainly would be more believable if Mitt Romney or Nikki Haley decided to sound the alarm.
The thing is, and I say this as a dirty open borders social democrat, there are plenty of actual bad cases, as you'd expect in a nation of 350 million people to use for examples, and even with families who will support you using their case, as opposed to the poor kid in Springfield, Ohio, whose family is against Trump or anti-immigration folks using their child as a bludgeon against immigration.
So why make up stuff?
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