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Small-Scale Question Sunday for October 9, 2022

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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What's going on between Democrats and Saudi Arabia? Are the Dems trying to warm relations with Iran? Where does that leave Israel?

What's going on between Democrats and Saudi Arabia?

Middle East foreign policy is one of the many topics where Republicans and Democrats favor different strategies. One of the central differences for the past several years has been the US approach to Iran--Republicans are opposed to the current Iranian regime, and want to contain it/promote a counterbalancing partnership of sorts (Abraham Accords--Trump), while Democrats would prefer to normalize relations with Iran (Iranian Nuclear deals--Obama and Biden).

Saudi Arabia fears the potential of Iranian aggression, as Iraq is no longer a meaningful buffer, so there is a certain tension between the agendas of the Saudis and the Democrats.

Are the Dems trying to warm relations with Iran?

Yes.

Where does that leave Israel?

Very much opposed to the Middle Eastern foreign policy of the Biden Administration, willing to make deals with any Arab state that will take their calls, and inclined to solve their own problems with Iran in the absence of US support.

Why are the Democrats normalizing relations with Iran? Do they think Iran getting nukes is a foregone conclusion? Or is Iran somehow a more reliable business partner? Or is a potential conflict with Iran too risky or costly to Democratic leadership? I guess, what changed, going back to Obama? Iran give more money to the Democrats? I remember the Netanyahu stunt in Congress. What triggered the animosity?

  1. The best way to liberalize a country isn't to ostracize it. Iran isn't going to improve its regime behavior if it is so isolated from Western finance, trade, and culture that it runs to Russia and China for friendship. Compare North Korea and Vietnam. Both fought bloody wars of independence against the USA, one was welcomed back into the liberal international order the other was not. Vietnam is a great place to vacation, and edging towards becoming a US ally, despite being run by a regime that did things to its people that make the mullahs look like pussycats. China might be taking an illiberal and adversarial turn, but man is it better than it was under Mao.

  2. There are significant costs associated with Iran's current posture vis a vis the West. They're a funding source for enemies of Israel and the United States. They're not going to stop doing that because we tell them we don't like it. They will likely eventually stop doing that if the USA/EU is their most important trading partner, and they face economic ruin if they fund Hezbollah. Democrats view it as in Israel (the country's) long term interest to have a netural-friendly Iran than thinking it can keep Iran permanently impoverished, isolated, and weak.

  3. Iran's Mullahs, Israel's Likudniks, and US Republicans would all prefer to fight each other than to cooperate; it is in their domestic political interests to see conflict. Peace breaking out would be an electoral disaster for all three.