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Culture War Roundup for the week of October 7, 2024

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Kamala's word salad causes prediction market meltdown?

https://x.com/CollinRugg/status/1843450980291010656

Question: "What does success look like in ending the war in Ukraine?"

Answer: "There will be no success in ending that war without Ukraine and the UN Charter participating in what that success looks like."

I guess she could be referring to Article 2(4)?

All Members shall refrain in their international relations from the threat or use of force against the territorial integrity or political independence of any State, or in any other manner inconsistent with the Purposes of the United Nations.

Even with a positively colossal steelman it's hard to understand what she's saying, charters cannot participate in successes. I think she doesn't really mean anything by this statement. It's what Gary Marcus says about LLMs, how they're just spinning word associations around.

She then continues on to repeat fairly standard US rhetoric 'we're not going to do a deal without Ukraine at the table' and dodges the question of NATO membership. None of it is particularly adept politician-speak IMO, she could do with lessons on muddying the issue.

How hard would it have been to say 'we want a free, democratic Ukraine with 1991 borders' or if they want 2014 borders, why not say that? Or if territory is too sensitive to talk about, just say 'we want a free and democratic Ukraine, a Russia that isn't going to be invading any more countries, deterrence for all America's enemies'? It was a pretty easy question!

It's not just that, there's more:

https://x.com/ClayTravis/status/1843449294008836567

She's asked about whether it was a mistake to let illegal immigration rise so dramatically and fails to dodge the question. She could've said 'oh there are enforcement problems since it's a big border' or given a distracting pre-prepared anecdote about one of the challenges they faced. She just says 'oh we have been offering solutions, solutions are at hand and we'll make more solutions on day one, when I'm elected!"

Here's a bigger chunk of the video, each minute I watch there's all this word salad and flailing question-dodging:

https://x.com/ThisIsJnored/status/1843473339085631770

For instance, at about 1:50 there's a question about the extensive US military aid to Israel and whether the Biden Harris administration is capable of putting any pressure on the Netanyahu govt.

Her answer: the work that we do diplomatically, with the leadership of Israel is an ongoing pursuit around making clear our principles.

Him: But it seems that Prime Minister Netanyahu is not listening.

Her: We're not going to stop pursuing what is necessary for the United States to be clear about where we stand on the need for this war to end.

She does say something substantive from time to time, carefully implying that the alliance is between the American people and the Israeli people, not with Netanyahu. She uses a proper technique like 'the real question is...' there which makes her look more in control. But it's still a pretty bad performance overall.

Presumably this is why polymarket has gone from parity to 53-46 in Trump's favour): https://polymarket.com/event/presidential-election-winner-2024?tid=1728364599343

And then there's the editing! I think whatever portion of the interview they're releasing is the most flattering stuff they could get. How else do you explain this: https://x.com/LangmanVince/status/1842964122553761982

He asks the same question "but it seems Prime Minister Netanyahu is not listening" with the exact same head movements (from a slightly different camera angle) and she gives a different answer, even more full of spaghetti:

Well Bill, the work that we have done has resulted in a number of... movements in that region by Israel that were very much prompted by or a result of many things including our advocacy for what needs to happen in the region.

What's going on here? Am I missing something basic? Kamala's answer isn't coherent either way but it's vaguely related to the question, was it edited from something else? This is why you should just give clear answers that specifically engage the question. Not interchangeable babble with with six clauses to a sentence.

I feel concerned (not only because I've placed bets that Donald Trump will lose the popular vote since I thought it was a dead sure thing) but also because this is the apparent calibre of American leadership. Even if we assume that Elite Human Capital or the Deep State is running the show, why can't these people find a decent media spokesperson? How hard can it be?

Apologies for how much of this post is rhetorical questions, twitter links and transcription, I'm truly confused by the whole thing. I also feel like people should know what I'm linking to, they should be able to scan the link with their own eyes and know to nitter or whatever if they don't have an account.

Edit: https://x.com/mazemoore/status/1843664856446316758 (this shows the editing they did somewhat more clearly)

Well, I'm happy that at long last she's finally being forced to answer some substantive questions, even if they're being lobbed to her from the most friendly possible journalist. her answers... are about what I expected, given what I remember of her from the 2020 primary. She just has no understanding, at all, of policy issues. Her word salad is her realizing she doesn't know what to say and frantically trying to dodge the question and move on.

To be fair those are pretty difficult issues. No matter what she said, she'd be guaranteed to piss off a lot of people. So I understand why a pro politician would want to avoid talking about them as much as possible. Trump has also been highly evasive on the issues of Ukraine and Israel, other than his usual "I'll make a deal" vague nonsense.

There seems to be this huge blindspot in American politics, where no one can admit or even notice that, despite all the US aid and influence, it's currently failing to achieve its goals. Ukraine is getting steadily pushed back, the violence around Israel rages on, and the US can do nothing but give away money to corrupt military-industrial contractors. I give Biden a lot of credit for being the one to finally admit that the situation in Afghanistan was bad and taking the political hit to withdraw. I wish he'd do the same and take the fall for those other bad situations.

I don't think taking the fall for Ukraine or Israel is something Biden even has the option to do. Afghanistan, sure, it's our army and we can pull it out whenever we want, but both those others we're just subsidizing a foreign army and ultimately it's their own government that decides when they stop fighting, not us.

I give Biden a lot of credit for being the one to finally admit that the situation in Afghanistan was bad and taking the political hit to withdraw. I wish he'd do the same and take the fall for those other bad situations.

Trump did this, the stonewalling just lasted until 2021.