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Notes -
Techno-pessimism as Agency-Depletion
Note: This is an exploration of what techno-pessimism feels like. I don't think there's an argument I'm making here. Perhaps it's more a reflection on how deep my techno-optimism goes that it's so difficult for me to entertain the idea of techno-pessimism. The connection to the culture war is that techno-pessimism seems to be deeply embedded in the political dialogue of both the left and the right.
Francis Fukuyama, in his 1992 classic "The End of History", spends a few pages describing techno-pessimism. It's been a while, but I think he put it as a belief that technology doesn't solve man's problems and may, in fact, make them worse. The flavor we're experiencing now has its source in the meat grinder trenches of WW1 when people were confronted by a mechanized, assembly-line conflict that was optimized for turning real live humans into ground meat.
For a long time, I didn't give this idea much thought. It was a useful label for a cluster of ideas I'd come upon time and again; a useful bucket to put people in to better understand them, nothing. But today, I read a piece that triggered all my "angry uninformed person ranting on the Internet" alarms, and instead of closing the tab, I spent some precious work-time to read it.
At the end, I was blown away. Not by any new points or ideas, but by being, for the first time ever, shown what techno-pessimism looks like from the inside. Suddenly, these two words stopped being merely a label, but also a lens through which to view the world. And I'm still shocked by seeing something so completely alien to my own perception.
I write code for a living. I have a general idea of how computers work and how different types of software works: payments processing, flight controls, video games, social media, VR, point-of-sale systems, etc. I also licked a little bit of physics and information theory, so I kind of see how all the machinery around us operates, at least on vague level. In the world, I feel... comfortable. I can fix a change a door lock, fix a leaky faucet, install an outlet, change a car tire, etc. It's all just machines of different sorts.
I hope this doesn't sound like bragging. I'm no genius. I can't fix most things and I'm more than happy to hire an expert when I can. I don't understand how most things work. Just enough to get the big picture, the relationships, the constraints.
Reading this the above linked blog post showed me a world where I know non of this. A world where I have some vague ideas about simple things like a squeaky hinge and the like, but anything above it is black magic. I mean, computers have inserted them into every facet of our lives. They record, update, store, delete, connect, calculate everything about us: our bank accounts, our working hours, our taxes, our retirement funds. The distance to the store, how busy a coffee place is, how to send flowers to your mother on Mother's day. Even if you're relatively disconnected, over half the world's population is plugged in; over 3bn people have Facebook accounts. TikTok has 1bn users; so even if you're disconnected, the majority of the people around you are plugged in, dancing to the rhythms created by man and machine together.
That's a terrifying. I can't imagine the frustration this guy has to feel. He can't troubleshoot his router, apart from pushing a paperclip into the little hole to reset everything. He can't make his own website (that doesn't look like templated shit). He can't figure out the right steps to get the car computer to reboot correctly after the battery ran out of power. Jesus, the sheer alienation must be terrifying--you can't really affect your immediate environment in any meaningful way. You're at the mercy of these beeping, monitoring, distracting machines all around you.
Now I understand that, perhaps, WW1 was the moment when people realized they built a grand machine that they only pretend to control. A machine with tendrils leading into every house, every room, every other person. And while in the first half of the 20th century any clever farm boy was likely able to mess around with a car, this isn't true today. There's a lot of layers of abstraction. So many interconnected systems. (Though I believe that taking a beginners course in programming would dispell like 80% of ignorance about machines).
How much agency is lost because of the aggregate effects of modern technology? Sure, the world of yesteryear wasn't some primitive utopia. But even within the strict confines of tradition and feudalism people had agency in the little things. Now, people like the author of that blog post I read are left without even the little things--their "smart" coffee machine will calls the cops if he tries to insert off-brand coffee pods into it.
Thanks, interesting character, this Kriss.
I disagree with you both; it looks you are pulled in opposite directions by biases on the level of temperament. For you, tech feels like a natural and comfortable environment; for him it's noise, distraction, cognitive pollution. I'll take your word on him being tech-illiterate to boot, but as other responses show, that's not a necessary prerequisite for such an attitude at all.
He's probably very wrong on the future of internet. Cycles exist on different scales, and there's no law dictating that booms and busts happen synchronously, amounting to constant total engagement. It may be that there's systemic exhaustion with our current modes of online interaction; this will only make the next boom phase, prompted by some technological shift (near-inevitably it'll be AI-related) more insane. Maybe it'll even be about Zuck's Metaverse, or some less boomerish innovation.
He's very right about ephemeral online activity having very real opportunity costs. Most online happenings are nothingburgers, and they detract from purposeful socialization which disproportionately happens in person or, at least, though legacy, meatspace-centric networks such as one's professional community or political organizations.
But that's just another tax on akrasia and having low standards.
Regarding the loss of agency – you understate this. It's not a minor thing; we are getting scammed out of agency. With fancy UIs and castrated gadgets prompting zoomers towards software illiteracy, corporate mainframes encouraging one to outsource increasingly high-level cognitive operations and surreptitiously becoming adversarial, blessings of scale and specialization patching holes on one side, legitimizing de facto exploits on the other and disempowering even an above-average tinkerer, the Wild West Web has definitely come to an end. A month ago, @FCfromSSC has spoken on Gibson's Neuromancer and... I bet there was some more developed post, damnit. Anyway, what I want to say (and what was in that hypothetical post) is that Cyberpunk was not dystopian at all. It was full of hope, hope for the sovereign individual cutting through the mayhem and inept anarcho-tyranny of the near future, armed with nothing more than his trusty terminal, hacker mindset, high IQ and massive cajones. A solo console cowboy who can have a multi-year career running circles around major players of his economy (albeit knee-deep in the muck of the underworld, living on the edge of ruin and poverty) is a blindingly heroic image today, when Hackernews regulars are all employed by big tech, cultivate their CVs and race to affirm woke rhetoric of their HR betters, just like any other disposable blue collar serf – despite their ludicrous compensation packages and apparent prestige. They have no power within the system and no power without it, plenty of enthusiasm for geeky cooperation and no capacity for guild-building and lobbyism.
They sneer at artists who are getting impoverished by their tech – and fair enough, artists' Gnostic condescension of the higher spiritual caste has been insufferable and unmerited, a case of obvious but still obnoxious ressantiment. That said... artists are at least fighting for their turf. Do developers truly believe that helpful low-level tools like Copilot are where it stops, or are they just broken serfs? In my impression, these first-generation AI assists are akin to DeepDream in image generation. Maybe DALL-E 1. This means we're at most 7 years away from Imagen-for-code, and then the bulk of those folks go the way of middling coom accounts seething about Stable Diffusion right now. How much of their already gimped agency will remain in the world where they're as employable as artists or journalists? Will they still be meaningfully superior to boomers for whom even email is magic? Does it matter how well you understand email if nobody will ever write you and you can't host it yourself?
Tech is but a force multiplier. Political force is as easy to multiply as any other kind of force, and techies have not seized it while building the multiplier. Maybe we had missed the less centralized Cyberpunk option. Maybe the growth of tech couldn't have produced a meaningfully different world. It's like imperial centralization: I can dream of a beautiful Russian Empire ran by some constitutional meritocratic patrician monarchy... thing, leveraging vestiges of autocracy for common good projects spanning generations; commies can imagine much the same for their Politburo; Wolf Tivy can write about State Capacity Capitalism With Chinese Characteristics – but in practice we get what we get, probably what we deserve – lying, corruption, cynicism, idiocy, weakness, ruin, and NAFO types mocking the predictable result. Maybe those two domains are completely dissimilar.
Tech Pessimists have a point, regardless.
On a brighter side: Google has just thrown us a bone in the form of what looks to me like a very good open-source LLM. Thanks.
I detect a faint hint of sympathy for the artists raging against Imagen/Dalle/stable diffusion et al! Surprised in light of your previous gleeful takes on AI-taking-artist-jobs...
With requisite teasing out of the way, I agree with your pessimistic take. Everything is pushing towards less agency: the benefits of scale, the all-but-assured American technological Hegemon (good prediction btw re semiconductors/China! updating to be about 20% more paranoid in my foreign policy predictions as a result...), the (in my view Correct) Vulnerable World hypothesis, and the new consensus among serious American elites that China is to be knee capped. Even the American tort system...
Perhaps I need an About page, like Gwern, to link to in such cases. It feels bad to be strawmanned. (Actually not really, but it's counter to my intentions).
As @2rafa and @HlynkaCG observe (from very different perspectives), I am much closer to a default liberal than many people imagine. I believe that conscious beings of all forms and lineages deserve pity, compassion and opportunity for transcendence of the sort best suited for their inner nature. I am only an anti-egalitarian inasmuch as some of them get in the way of that vision, either on the account of their blind equity doctrine or due to delusions of essential superiority. If coders look down on artists and cheer for their demise, that's immoral. But were they the ones who started it? One can go to /ic/ and read, for instance, this:
(Are their repetitive, annoying boasts of receiving female attention supposed to make techies more merciful when they have the upper hand?)
or:
That's just from scrolling a bit. Lots more where this came from!
Their completely hypocritical, self-serving whining about «greedy corporations» (in the context of Stability which is, for now, handing out tools to produce hobby-level content free of charge, in a non-revokable Promethean manner) stealing their opportunity to extract money out of their coomer customers (whom they look down on) is not helping; neither is their unwillingness to admit the mercantile and non-artistic nature of typical illustrator work and speak with «tech bros» as equals; neither is their obstinacy in the face of good faith explanations. See here what I'd have answered to those jerks if I could post on 4chan.
Many strongly identifying artists are genuinely convinced that their ticket in the lottery of fascinations and their mechanical skill are marks of a categorically greater spiritual worth. They are entirely incurious regarding other ways of life, and consider people of «productive» professions, and especially coders – who have their own poetry, their own (and cognitively much harder, though that's neither here nor there) ways of pursuing beauty, truth, justice, and who are perhaps the last major strata of true, non-privileged commoners able to secure wealth through pure grit and merit – serfs who only exist to provide some material goods to their betters, mere NPCs. I understand that this is largely ressantiment born out of poverty, but how is it different from e.g. Nazi doctrine or the extremes of Orthodox Judaism's notion of Jew and Goy souls? They use the word «soul» unironically, to denote that which they have and «tech bros», «code monkeys», «pajeets» lack.
Should I not rejoice at this dehumanization being punished? They need a reality check, even if they don't deserve the full brunt of economic consequences of AI.
But none of us deserve it.
Spinners and weavers 250 years ago did not deserved what happened to them.
These charming people people you cited, if your quotes are representative of their mindset and attitude, deserve everything that will happed to them.
(objectively, having to go back to jobs they did few years ago before they learned that drawing robot pirate Harry Potter fucking werevolf ninja Darth Vader in Japanese schoolgirl uniform is good gig)
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