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PaperclipPerfector  6mo ago (text post)   30531 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of October 21, 2024

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The Political Horse Race Two Weeks Out

Apologies to our foreign or American friends who may be bored by the non-stop election coverage, but I just can't get enough.

A couple weeks ago I predicted with 50% confidence (the ultimate in weasly predictions) that we'd see an October surprise timed for maximum damage to the Trump campaign. I think we just saw the attempt. It was dumb as you could expect.

Yesterday, nearly every single media outlet in the country ran the same story. The story? John Kelly, Trump's former chief of staff, supposedly once said that Trump told him "Well, Hitler did a lot of good things". Kelly also said something about Trump praising Hitler's generals. The story was first reported in 2021. It was denied by Trump the next day.

Somehow, three years later, it was front page news in nearly every mainstream outlet. It was an incredible example of media discipline and coordination. See for yourself:

https://www.google.com/search?hl=en&q=trump%20hitler%20comments

So... did it land? No I don't think so. Comparing people to Hitler is the oldest game in the book. Does anyone remember the Lyndon Larouche campaigners with their Obama-as-Hitler posters? Moreover, we've heard everything about Trump. 99% of people have made up their mind already. And Trump is also omnipresent. Today's Hitler story is yesterday's news as Trump appears on Rogan or works at McDonald's or eats a burrito bowl or something.

Harris tried to make the story work. In between cringe videos of her latest town hall appearance, her Twitter account tweeted this:

Trump is unstable and unhinged.

If elected, his Project 2025 agenda would give him virtually unchecked power to fill the government with loyalists. There would be no one to stop him from carrying out his darkest impulses."

So how are the betting markets taking it? Well, there were a couple more flash crashes in Trump shares on Polymarket. Around midnight, his odds briefly dipped under 60%. Was it manipulation? I don't think so. To paraphrase Stanley Druckenmiller, sometimes it's better to just buy the rumor and then ask questions later. Maybe it was worth a gamble to see if the attack stuck.

As of right now, Trump is up near 65% again. Interestingly, his chances of winning the popular vote have crept up to about 40%. In polls, according to Real Clear Politics, Harris's nationwide lead has fallen to 0.3%, while Trump maintains a 0.9% edge in the seven swing states.

It really is too close to call at this point. Will we see a "real" October surprise against Trump? It feels unlikely. There just isn't any more unspent ammunition. Will the Trump campaign produce some valuable oppo research against Harris? Again, unlikely, since the media wouldn't report on it anyway.

The election is 12 days out, and many ballots have already been cast.

So... did it land? No I don't think so.

I've seen people argue that this isn't about trying to sway the voters, but laying the groundwork for after the election. For example, from a commenter over at Instapundit:

Trump will be arrested if he wins. The DNC and Deep State will not allow him to take office. They're laying the groundwork for public discourse now and are planning it internally. Harris would not be allowed to call him a fascist, and all the rhetoric from retired generals and "experts" all over the air waves.

I've seen similar arguments elsewhere. As a YouTube commenter once put it, Weimar Germany made the mistake of letting Hitler and the Nazis into the government just because they won elections, and we must never repeat that mistake ("Never again!"). This proves Trump wants to be Hitler — this time, for realsies, trust us! — and so, to defend Our Democracy and countless millions of American lives, we must stop him from returning to the White House, no matter what it takes.

The rules, the Constitution, prohibit this? It's time to get Schmittian — "sovereign is he who decides on the state of exception" — and "the Constitution is not a suicide pact." In this "state of exception," the 'rules' take a backseat to the very survival of our nation against Hitler 2.0. (And besides, the written Constitution hasn't described how our government is actually constituted and functions for at least a century — it's a dead letter.)

Of course, my primary theory is that all of this is for show, and "the fix is in," as they say. Get ready for eight years of Harris. To give some quotes from one of my favorite commenters (one "L") over at the Dread Jim's blog:

So, you rightoids ready to sit in the corner and watch while elite human capital takes home another election?

…

You have crucial states openly announcing that they won’t be reporting counts until several days afterwards and you honestly think you stand a chance? I knew rightoids were low IQ but even I’m surprised by ignorance of that level.

…

Again, doesn’t matter if they exclusively counted votes while utterly shitfaced. You have no institutional means to stop them saying the total is whatever we want and no ability to use force. You’re done, simple as.

And my favorite in the thread:

It literally would not matter if there wasn’t a single genuine voter for Kamala in any of those states. The vote is whatever the people counting the vote say it is. Guess who those people are?

By the way, there’s not a single mechanism or institution that would ever support any kind of challenge to the results. Musk can say whatever he wants, in the short time he has before prison, and it doesn’t mean anything.

Edit: another proposed theory I'm seeing — this isn't about persuading voters, this is dogwhistling for the crazies to get the job done this time. From another Jim commenter:

Surrounded by a crowd of mystery meats, roasties, some pale cucklords who look vegan, and one hoary and hoarse Obongo, she once again attempts to meme Trump into being Hitler (who himself endured lots of assassination attempts, as many people remember), and pretty much begs — she might as well go down on her knees, as she is used to — everyone to just kill that cracker. There’s very little nuance here. It’s open season from now on until Order is Restored.

I'll take the other end of the imminent musk imprisonment bet.

Relevant: From the Wall Street Journal: "Elon Musk’s Secret Conversations With Vladimir Putin":

Elon Musk, the world’s richest man and a linchpin of U.S. space efforts, has been in regular contact with Russian President Vladimir Putin since late 2022.

The discussions, confirmed by several current and former U.S., European and Russian officials, touch on personal topics, business and geopolitical tensions.

At one point, Putin asked the billionaire to avoid activating his Starlink satellite internet service over Taiwan as a favor to Chinese leader Xi Jinping, said two people briefed on the request.

…

At the same time, the contacts also raise potential national-security concerns among some in the current administration, given Putin’s role as one of America’s chief adversaries.

Musk has forged deep business ties with U.S. military and intelligence agencies, giving him unique visibility into some of America’s most sensitive space programs. SpaceX, which operates the Starlink service, won a $1.8 billion classified contract in 2021 and is the primary rocket launcher for the Pentagon and NASA. Musk has a security clearance that allows him access to certain classified information.

…

The billionaire’s conversations with Putin and Kremlin officials highlight his increasing inclination to stretch beyond business and into geopolitics. He has met several times and talked business with Javier Milei of Argentina, as well as former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro, whom he defended in an acrimonious online debate.

Putin is on a different order of magnitude. The Russian leader has created an authoritarian system that oversees fraudulent elections and the assassinations of political opponents, for which President Biden called him a “killer.” With keys to one of the world’s most powerful nuclear arsenals and growing territorial ambitions in Europe, Putin has become the U.S.’s chief antagonist.

…

In the past year, Musk and Russia’s interests have increasingly overlapped. Apart from Russia’s use of X for disinformation and Musk’s outspoken opposition to aid to Kyiv, Ukrainian officials said earlier this year that Russian forces occupying the country’s eastern and southern swaths had started using Starlink to enable secure communications and extend the range of their drones.

…

Earlier this year, Musk gave airtime to Putin and his views on the U.S. and Ukraine when X carried Tucker Carlson’s two-hour interview with the Russian leader inside the Kremlin. In that interview, Putin said he was sure Musk “was a smart person.”

There's also a lot in there about Musk and the Trump campaign — subtly implying, but never outright alleging, "Russian Collusion 2.0" with Elon as middleman. But I'm getting a definite "he could be leaking US secrets to Putin" vibe from it. Possible groundwork for espionage charges?

Every communication between Musk and Putin is obviously monitored and everyone knows it on all sides.

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