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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   29630 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

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Trump just hit an all-time high of 67.1% on Polymarket with small leads in WI and PA that are must-win states for Harris.

It's very early but the landslide scenarios don't seem to be playing out. Trump's chances are rated at less than 10% in Virginia and Minnesota. Harris is rated at only 14% to win Iowa. Trump will likely win Texas and Florida by huge margins.

Of course, by posting this, I am likely high-ticking the market in Trump shares. Bet accordingly.

It was 69% recently lots of Nice! and screen shots.

Now at 70.2. I just can't hit refresh fast enough.

I'd be a little worried buying shares above this level unless there were multiple states shutting the door on Harris. 2020s late-night surge still looms large.

Edit: Shares are jumping all over the place. We're probably in the window of max volatility now.

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