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naraburns  nihil supernum  1yr ago (text post)   29630 thread views

U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

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Trump just hit an all-time high of 67.1% on Polymarket with small leads in WI and PA that are must-win states for Harris.

It's very early but the landslide scenarios don't seem to be playing out. Trump's chances are rated at less than 10% in Virginia and Minnesota. Harris is rated at only 14% to win Iowa. Trump will likely win Texas and Florida by huge margins.

Of course, by posting this, I am likely high-ticking the market in Trump shares. Bet accordingly.

I'm sure the smarties know that something (like the Blob part of VA being counted last) but Trump is currently slightly ahead there. I don't think he'll take it, but if it holds up to be anywhere near close that is a crazy polling miss.

He won't. Fairfax County will deliver all the federal employees who are beholden to Democrat make work projects. Also the Clinton political machine is deeply embedded in Northern VA. There is a reason she picked Tim Kaine as her VP pick back in 2016.

Yeah, turns out not super-close -- margin is not looking yuge though, he must have pulled some votes there somehow.

Yeah, it might help some with the popular vote. Didn't make a dent in local politics though sadly.

Yeah, I saw that too. Polymarket doesn't seem to buy it, giving Trump only a 6% chance.

But if Virginia is close, NC and GA should be resounding Trump wins.

The question mark of North Carolina is how much the hurricane disrupted election infrastructure. IIRC, the hurricane most devastated the western part of the state, which is the redder.

I don't claim to have looked closely at how post-hurricane election efforts resolved, but between displacements and flood aftermaths that is the sort of situation where slow recovery leads to depressed turnout.

Georgia looks good for Trump. North Carolina coming in a bit shaky. Not sure how people are updating so much.

Yeah I don't know either.

Out-there hypothesis: Similar to how hedge funders look at satellite images of parking lots to predict company earnings, a very sophisticated trader could count the number of black people in line at polling stations.

Less out-there: Apparently Florida posts almost real-time data about who voted. And Trump is crushing. So, to the limited extent that can Florida turnout can be projected on to other states, Trump is outperforming.

Apparently Florida posts almost real-time data about who voted.

Why is Florida so efficient at counting votes? What do they actually do differently?

I am sure some hedge funds employ their own private polling services, plus field guys to check turnout. You'd be amazed the depths hedge funds go to get an edge. note how DJT stock crashed 30% on Thursday and Friday before that surprise Saturday Iowa poll , but DJT was flat on overnight Monday/Sunday trading. I am guessing some hedge funds were privy to those Iowa results.

It was 69% recently lots of Nice! and screen shots.

Now at 70.2. I just can't hit refresh fast enough.

I'd be a little worried buying shares above this level unless there were multiple states shutting the door on Harris. 2020s late-night surge still looms large.

Edit: Shares are jumping all over the place. We're probably in the window of max volatility now.

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