With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.
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Notes -
Well, I get no Bayes points. I had a feeling Trump'd win, but I didn't say it so it doesn't count.
I'm interested to see what Elon Musk can get up to with the Fair Game order presumably ending, although Twitter's still a millstone that he has to figure out how to delegate. Still, that purchase seems to have swung the election - it's the most obvious cause for the young voters turning away from SJ in droves - so I can't say it was a mistake, just something with costs that he has to minimise going forward. Musk MVP, and I think Trump noticed that in his victory speech.
@Capital_Room, @naraburns, and anyone else who wants to: I'm asking you now for a number on Trump getting murdered or otherwise failing to assume power (e.g. faithless elector scheme, fake elector scheme, 1,000,000 fake votes showing up).
Anyone who wants to: Chance on Biden resigning before Jan 21, so they still get to claim "the first female President"?
My odds the day before were 60% Trump 40% Harris. In retrospect perhaps 70% would have been a better figure, but no higher. The fact is that there were a lot of unknowns going on (such as weirdness about polling reliability) so I feel my mental modeling is still fine.
Odds on failing to assume power I concur at placing around 1%, with heart attack being the leading cause, assassination more of a distant second somewhere hovering around a successful 14th amendment or legal challenge.
Doing some super lazy math, I think I still feel good about that. 2-4ish percent annualized heart attack chance at 78 for those who haven't previously had one, upweighted due to his bad diet and overweight status, downweighted for them not normally being lethal, upweighted slightly for the chance he'd step aside if the aftermath was severe enough, downweighted for being only a quarter year, lands me somewhere in the upper region of a single percentage point, and filled out by the other random unpredictables, sounds about right.
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