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U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

If you're a U.S. citizen with voting rights, your polling place can reportedly be located here.

If you're still researching issues, Ballotpedia is usually reasonably helpful.

Any other reasonably neutral election resources you'd like me to add to this notification, I'm happy to add.

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Just wanted to point out the big losers of last night were:

  1. Harris
  2. DEI (with Harris being the epitome of the DEI candidate)
  3. Selzer
  4. Silver
  5. RDS (clearly the party will be JD’s after this term though I could obviously see RDS as a running mate)

The big winners:

  1. Vance (his star is ascending massively)
  2. Trump
  3. Betting markets (crushed the poll prognosticators)
  4. Elon

It's weird that the Modal outcome happening means Silver lost.

(no seriously his forecast was that trumps most likely path to victory was sweeping all 6 swing states happening 20% of the time)

His other 3 forecasts for most likely trump victory being

Winning everything but Michigan and wisconsin, winning everything but wisconsin, and winning everything but nevada.

When you read deeper into his forecast as to how each candidate would win you see that it's basically "win by a narrow margin in every single major contest causing a blowout in the score"

Silver got feisty about Florida, trying to make a 100k bet that Trump would win by less than 8.

Trump won by 13.

It was an unnecessary own goal.