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U.S. Election (Day?) 2024 Megathread

With apologies to our many friends and posters outside the United States... it's time for another one of these! Culture war thread rules apply, and you are permitted to openly advocate for or against an issue or candidate on the ballot (if you clearly identify which ballot, and can do so without knocking down any strawmen along the way). "Small-scale" questions and answers are also permitted if you refrain from shitposting or being otherwise insulting to others here. Please keep the spirit of the law--this is a discussion forum!--carefully in mind.

If you're a U.S. citizen with voting rights, your polling place can reportedly be located here.

If you're still researching issues, Ballotpedia is usually reasonably helpful.

Any other reasonably neutral election resources you'd like me to add to this notification, I'm happy to add.

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Dominic Cummings (actually his buddy Ben and their shared polling methods) predicted the election outcomes well in advance, before it was even known that Harris would run. They were right on the money with specificity too, it seems: https://x.com/Dominic2306/status/1854275006064476410

Who else got things very right beforehand? Polymarket was obviously predictive. Elon Musk should never be underestimated, he bets big with well-deserved confidence. What other voices in future are trustworthy?

In the replies there is some interesting info on the French whale:

https://x.com/mbateman/status/1854278584338436386

https://www.wsj.com/finance/how-the-trump-whale-correctly-called-the-election-cb7eef1d

He hired a major pollster to ask people who their neighbors is voting for. The idea is that people might not reveal their own preferences, but will indirectly do that when asked to guess their neighbors preferences. The results were "mind blowing in favor of Trump". And with this info he bet $30 million on Polymarket.