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Alright folks, election is over, now it's predictions time! I want your predictions for what actually gets done in terms of the Republican party platform for 2024, from this site:https://www.donaldjtrump.com/platform
I'm just going to go with the top 10. Now of course these are not precisely defined predictions, but in general I'm going to be predicting something like "is this problem solved, to where the majority of Republican voters would feel it's either no longer an issue, or at least will be happy with what got changed?"
Let me know if you have thoughts on a better way to do this. Now, onto the predictions!
1 SEAL THE BORDER AND STOP THE MIGRANT INVASION
I give this a 70% chance, high conf. that major action is taking to secure the border, make illegal immigrants' lives worse in the U.S.
2 CARRY OUT THE LARGEST DEPORTATION OPERATION IN AMERICAN HISTORY
I'd give this a 15% chance, med. confidence. This one is a doozy.
3 END INFLATION, AND MAKE AMERICA AFFORDABLE AGAIN
30% chance, low confidence. Too many factors in the economy and I don't trust Trump's plan.
4 MAKE AMERICA THE DOMINANT ENERGY PRODUCER IN THE WORLD, BY FAR!
60% chance, med. confidence. There is a lot of low hanging fruit. If Trump and co. can wrangle the bureaucracy, this could happen!
5 STOP OUTSOURCING, AND TURN THE UNITED STATES INTO A MANUFACTURING SUPERPOWER
30% chance, low confidence. It's definitely possible, but rising prices of goods makes this real unpopular.
6 LARGE TAX CUTS FOR WORKERS, AND NO TAX ON TIPS!
40% chance, medium confidence. Gosh I hope so!
7 DEFEND OUR CONSTITUTION, OUR BILL OF RIGHTS, AND OUR FUNDAMENTAL FREEDOMS, INCLUDING FREEDOM OF SPEECH, FREEDOM OF RELIGION, AND THE RIGHT TO KEEP AND BEAR ARMS
95% chance, high confidence. I don't see freedoms/rights getting worse under Trump, personally.
8 PREVENT WORLD WAR THREE, RESTORE PEACE IN EUROPE AND IN THE MIDDLE EAST, AND BUILD A GREAT IRON DOME MISSILE DEFENSE SHIELD OVER OUR ENTIRE COUNTRY -- ALL MADE IN AMERICA
95% chance, low conf. we avoid WW3 under a Trump term. 80% chance we end the war in Europe, med. confidence. Idk about the dome
9 END THE WEAPONIZATION OF GOVERNMENT AGAINST THE AMERICAN PEOPLE
40% chance, medium confidence anything significant gets done. The Deep State goes Deep.
10 STOP THE MIGRANT CRIME EPIDEMIC, DEMOLISH THE FOREIGN DRUG CARTELS, CRUSH GANG VIOLENCE, AND LOCK UP VIOLENT OFFENDERS
55% chance, medium competence. I think cracking down on crime is doable but, again, quite unpopular for optics. we'll see.
Let’s have some ‘black-pilling’ on the mass deportation front.
Mandatory nationwide e-verify and fines for employers (which will probably be blocked by liberal GOP senators + the filibuster anyway) aren’t going to lead to millions of illegal Central Americans self-deporting. By the way, many European countries already have their equivalents of this and still huge huge numbers of illegal migrants. American hospitals will still (under their own duties of care) treat these people for free when they walk in with an ailment, charities will still feed them, plenty of people will still hire them cash-in-hand or in less than scrupulous businesses.
Even the shittiest, worst life possible in America is still an order of magnitude better than life in Guatemala or Honduras for anyone but the tiny local elite. No threats are capable of leading to self-deportation for the bulk of illegal immigrants. They will always take their chances in the US. The worst life possible in the US is better than the average life in Haiti. Heavy enforcement may affect things at the margins, but not the majority.
The pull factor will remain as long as birthright citizenship does. For the last 25 years, the number 1 test for any GOP nominated SCOTUS judge should have been “Will you rule birthright citizenship unconstitutional”, because this is the ONLY thing that matters when it comes to immigration. Instead they decided that maximizing the production of underclass babies was the central duty of American conservatism, and here we are with ACB and so on. Parents sacrifice themselves for their children every day, it is a fundamental behavior. As long as an illegal immigrant evades ICE long enough to have a child (and America is a big, big place), their descendants are as American as you or I. As long as this is the case, illegal immigration will always be huge.
What about the Tony Abbot method, as described by the Dreaded Jim here:
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