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Notes -
Life Extension is Mostly Fake (So Far)
With modern technology, humans are very limited in being able to control how long we live. Beyond avoiding obvious own goals such as smoking or becoming obese, there's really not much one can do to dramatically increase his lifespan. Only about 2% of people will live to 100, and it's mostly down to genetics.
One naive belief that some life extension advocates have is that life expectancy will increase linearly over time. This has not been happening. From 1900–2000, life expectancy in the U.S. increased from roughly 50 to 78. But since then, the number has barely budged. Most of the dramatic increase in life expectancy starting in 1900 was due to better public sanitation that eliminated a handful of deadly infectious diseases. But now the low hanging fruit has been picked. There's not much more we can do by treating disease. For example, if we completely cured skin cancer, it would only increase life expectancy by a few days. And if we somehow cured ALL cancer it would only increase life expectancy by 3.2 years.
People's bodies simply break down over time. We are not machines that have interchangeable parts. We're more like a piece of metal that rusts until it is so fragile the merest touch will shatter it. Until we can address the root cause of death (aging), no amount of medical care can keep a person alive indefinitely.
And we've made very little progress.
Some people had hoped that by eating a near-starvation diet they could slow the course of aging. Unfortunately, as more data has come in it turns out that caloric restriction tends to work really well for worms, less well for mice, and maybe not much at all for larger animals.
In more online places, a man named Bryan Johnson has become famous for his anti-aging "Blueprint" that includes hundreds of daily supplements and other quirky behaviour such as not eating after 11:30am. Johnson insists that, in his mid-40s, he has the mind and body of a man in his 20s. But looking at pictures, it's obvious that this isn't true. Rather than looking like a young man, he looks like an uncanny middle-aged man.
When we look at centarians, we don't see any obvious traits that led to their long life spans except for having long-lived relatives. High IQ is a positive, as is having lots of social connections. But there's no silver bullet and father time comes for everyone. By age 120, it's inevitable you will die, unless we can arrest the aging process. Perhaps a breakthrough is right around the corner. But there haven't been any incremental steps in that direction.
Ray Kurzweil was on Joe Rogan's podcast recently. He seems completely deluded about life extension. I think he said we're at 20% of the longevity escape velocity, which means life expectancy is increasing by about ten weeks every year, so that you're really only 42 weeks closer to death every year. He says this is accelerating such that we will reach longevity escape velocity in about ten years I think. This strikes me as ridiculously optimistic and timed so that he is just young enough to be able to benefit from this.
The guy is not doing well, judging by his appearance. Joe Rogan asked him his age and I was expecting to hear an answer that started with a 9 and was shocked when he said he was in his seventies. Judging by videos from just a few years ago, he has started to age really fast. His body was slumped over and he talked very slowly. The interview was painful to listen to. He's taking something like 60 pills a day to stay young and it doesn't seem to be helping.
Poor Ray.
Yeah, I remember Ray talking about escape velocity. That's just a stupid belief for such a smart person. We're going the wrong direction. In the early 1900s, we were at 40% of escape velocity. It's been going down every since. Today, it's close to zero.
And the supplements... Let's say that, in isolation, each of these supplements increased lifespan by 0.2 years which is unlikely, but not impossible. But that doesn't mean that, in aggregate they will increase lifespan by 0.2*60 = 12 years. In fact, all these supplements might interact with each other in negative ways and actually be harmful in aggregate. I don't know. Neither does Ray.
I think this is misleading. The number care about is more like "life expectancy conditioned on being a healthy adult", which I don't think was changing much back then, nor has changed much recently. But probably is still going up a little if you control for demographics, which, in my limited understanding, have been changing in the West to mask (small) improvements in longevity.
I don't know exactly what you mean by "healthy young adult" (healthy young adults by definition die rarely), but life expectancy at every age has increased since 1900:
https://ourworldindata.org/its-not-just-about-child-mortality-life-expectancy-improved-at-all-ages
Life expectancy at 20 years old in 1900 was just under 65 and is now over 80.
Whoops, thanks for correcting me and for providing a link.
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