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How Self-Driving Cars will Destroy Cities (and what to do about it)
Not Just Bikes has a new video out: How Self-Driving Cars will Destroy Cities (and what to do about it). I have a love/hate relationship with urbanist essayists like this. On the one hand, they often raise issues that most of the time are not explicitly considered by most people. On the other hand, they tend to have a very leftist perspective, and ignore important costs, benefits, and solutions.
The video makes roughly the following arguments:
Externalities
1 and 3 are similar problems. There are externalities that current laws don't address because they weren't huge problems given historical technology. Namely noise, tire pollution, and congestion. But new technology, autonomous cars, changes the costs and benefits of driving and will make these externalities much worse.
Not Just Bikes's proposed solution is to completely ban anything related to cars from city centers: highways, roads, parking spaces, parking garages. Bans are the same blunt tool that current laws use to force too much parking and not enough housing and bikes lanes to be built, just in the opposite direction. But he redeems himself by proposing putting a price on driving.
If you've ever heard of Arthur Pigou, a price on driving as the solution to 1 and 3 is pretty obvious. If someone really wants to drive at 4:30pm on a Friday when everyone else in the city wants to drive too, let them pay extra to be one of the people who can actually get places. There's a limit to how many people can actually get anywhere at that time, and we might as well offer the slots to the people who get the most value from it, and get some money back for public use in return. Charging a congestion fee completely solves the problem of autonomous vehicles circling the city hoping to be closest to the next customer. They have to pay the same fee as anyone else, so they'll only be on the road if they're the highest-value use of road space.
Not Just Bikes proposes investing in "functional and viable public transit", especially in forms that are difficult to remove, presumably to be able to resist transient political pressure. Of course, any publicly-run agency is going to have a very hard time running "functional and viable" transit when compared to a selfish private organization. And there's no reason a company that makes autonomous vehicles can't make and run buses as well.
A better solution is to price road space appropriately, and be agnostic to who's using the space. This allows the highest-value uses without artificially restricting to "public" or "autonomous" uses. Offer express lanes that guarantee certain speeds by limiting the number of vehicles that can enter. The entry fee is set high enough that there aren't any queues to enter. Crucial here is that any vehicle, private or public, should be able to use the lane as long as the driver pays the fee. This allows many more solutions to transit problems, without the dysfunction of publicly-run bus agencies. For example, corporate shuttles, church buses, and private rideshares should be allowed to use the same express lanes as public buses. And if Jay Leno wants to drive his personal car in the express lane, as long as he pays the fee, let him! Same goes for autonomous vehicle makers. If they want to reserve some space on freeways for their cars, make them compete on price the same as anyone else.
Putting a market-based fee on express lanes has a side benefit of making the opportunity cost of formerly transit-only lanes more legible. A few such market-based lanes can illustrate how expensive existing transit-only lanes really are.
Public Choice
Point 2, that laws will tend to favor autonomous car makers over the public, is just a specific example of public choice being a hard problem. There are analogous situations with Big Tech and the public commons, John Deere and right-to-repair, and Big Oil and climate regulations. I don't have a lot to say here, except that this has always been a problem, in other times and places has been much worse, and is likely to be manageable. People are smart.
An Aside on Congestion and Induced Demand
This video mentions the old chestnut that (paraphrasing) induced demand means it's pointless to increase road capacity. I'll quote one of our own:
If autonomous vehicles lead to people traveling more, that's good! It means more trips are now worth taking. People are visiting friends and relatives more often, working at jobs that are farther away but are a better fit for them, and in general doing more valuable things.
Conclusion
I'd like to see more discussion of the economics of transit, and economic solutions, especially without a leftist slant. But this is the first time I've seen a popular urbanist talk about the fact that self-driving cars will increase road use and congestion. This is great! This fact should be obvious to anyone who's spent five seconds thinking about the consequences of making driving cheaper, but I haven't seen it mentioned much outside rationalist circles. This point alone makes up for any other failings in this video.
I haven't seen the video yet, but I'd dismiss 2 or 3 outright as doomerism since no one knows what the legislative implications of autonomous vehicles will be. You might see areas with few pedestrians optimized for self-driving cars, but I doubt anywhere with significant foot traffic would see it. I've written elsewhere about the subscription model and why back-of-the-napkin math shows that it won't work out, at least not at any significant discount from owning your own vehicle. Just to give a relevant example without getting into too many specifics: The general idea is that most of a personal auto's useful life is wasted because it's sitting at home or in a parking lot. Thus, it would be more efficient if someone else could use your car when you aren't. The upshot is that no one will own their own cars when autonomous vehicles will make it possible for the car to take itself where it is needed automatically.
The problem is that trips aren't randomly distributed throughout the day. There's an initial peak during morning rush-hour that gradually fades throughout the late morning before rising again in the afternoon and peaking around 5:00. It then begins to taper again into the evening, and there is very little traffic overnight. Compound this with the fact that land use isn't uniform, either. Commercial offices are mostly located in city centers or their own office parks. Industrial sites are located in industrial parks, riverfronts, or other areas where they are relatively segregated from other uses. Commercial shopping and entertainment districts are located along their own strips in the suburbs. Downtown Pittsburgh has something like 5400 residents but 54,000 daily workers and visitors. Most of the residents specifically chose to live Downtown because it was easy to get to work. So every weekday you have a huge mass of cars coming in, but the number of people looking for a ride out of Downtown at 9 am on a Tuesday is vanishingly small. None of these cars will be able to find fares very easily, and it will be late in the afternoon before there is enough demand to get them out of Downtown.
So there are two options. The first is that they park all day until demand picks up, in which case we haven't solved anything. The other is that they leave and try to find fares elsewhere. This makes things worse; now we've got rush hours that run in both directions, full of cars deadheading out of town in search of fares or cheaper parking. Environmental costs aside, this is a dystopian traffic nightmare. Enact rules on deadheading and now you also have to pay the cost of parking the car and keeping it on standby all day, defeating the purpose of the service.
It's amazing how the same armchair urbanists who decry mid-century urban renewal inadvertently champion some of its precepts when it suits their anti-car tastes. When downtowns were losing business to shopping malls, it became trendy to pedestrianize streets or even entire business districts. The traffic disruptions meant that roads on the perimeter needed to be widened to accommodate the additional traffic, and buildings along these roads were torn down for parking lots. Architectural critic Anthony Paletta has described this as "strangulation by ring road"; once the business districts were disconnected from the surrounding neighborhoods, they began to wither away. Crossing a 4 lane one-way ring road was a hassle for pedestrians, and the centers became havens for derelicts. Some of the more notable revivals have happened only after cities restored the commercial strips to through traffic.
I think you are right that there will not be fewer vehicles. We have some data to support that. The existence of Uber has not reduced private vehicle ownership (but has reduced public transit use).
https://www.perplexity.ai/search/has-the-existence-of-uber-redu-RmakZ2MPSxGxVrAtl9Z_fw
This tracks with me. The operating costs of one of these vehicles will be low (back of the envelope 3-4k a year). Most people who currently own cars would continue to own them rather than worry about capacity issues. On a practical level, in a city like Seattle, a driverless taxi would become a toilet pretty quickly. I'd much rather ride in style in my own car with all my stuff in it. Most Americans will easily afford it.
But driverless cars will displace public transportation. The cost to operate busses in a corrupt city like Seattle is well over $1 per passenger mile. Driverless cars will be cheaper, will deliver their occupants directly to their location, and will not expose riders to a risk of violence.
For some reason I've never imagined before that municipalities could simply create their own uber clones and call that public transportation, but I really don't see why not. Yeah some people will rapidly lose their privileges to use it, and should, but surely that's a solved problem?
Its solved for Uber and Lyft exactly because they ban people. Public transit has the issue of banning people being basically impossible. BART-Lyft in San Francisco would quickly devolve into cars full of needles, feces, and vomit.
Well I mean surely someone out there is no longer allowed on the bus.
How?
Bus drivers recognize them and - oh yeah no way would violence be allowed.
But with municipal-uber, presumably access cards could be issued to people very cheaply and deactivated temporarily or permanently if abused. Sure someone could use someone else's card but then the person loaning it is putting themselves on the hook which seems fine to me. And all of this is before facial recognition.
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