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Culture War Roundup for the week of November 11, 2024

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Life Extension is Mostly Fake (So Far)

With modern technology, humans are very limited in being able to control how long we live. Beyond avoiding obvious own goals such as smoking or becoming obese, there's really not much one can do to dramatically increase his lifespan. Only about 2% of people will live to 100, and it's mostly down to genetics.

One naive belief that some life extension advocates have is that life expectancy will increase linearly over time. This has not been happening. From 1900–2000, life expectancy in the U.S. increased from roughly 50 to 78. But since then, the number has barely budged. Most of the dramatic increase in life expectancy starting in 1900 was due to better public sanitation that eliminated a handful of deadly infectious diseases. But now the low hanging fruit has been picked. There's not much more we can do by treating disease. For example, if we completely cured skin cancer, it would only increase life expectancy by a few days. And if we somehow cured ALL cancer it would only increase life expectancy by 3.2 years.

People's bodies simply break down over time. We are not machines that have interchangeable parts. We're more like a piece of metal that rusts until it is so fragile the merest touch will shatter it. Until we can address the root cause of death (aging), no amount of medical care can keep a person alive indefinitely.

And we've made very little progress.

Some people had hoped that by eating a near-starvation diet they could slow the course of aging. Unfortunately, as more data has come in it turns out that caloric restriction tends to work really well for worms, less well for mice, and maybe not much at all for larger animals.

In more online places, a man named Bryan Johnson has become famous for his anti-aging "Blueprint" that includes hundreds of daily supplements and other quirky behaviour such as not eating after 11:30am. Johnson insists that, in his mid-40s, he has the mind and body of a man in his 20s. But looking at pictures, it's obvious that this isn't true. Rather than looking like a young man, he looks like an uncanny middle-aged man.

When we look at centarians, we don't see any obvious traits that led to their long life spans except for having long-lived relatives. High IQ is a positive, as is having lots of social connections. But there's no silver bullet and father time comes for everyone. By age 120, it's inevitable you will die, unless we can arrest the aging process. Perhaps a breakthrough is right around the corner. But there haven't been any incremental steps in that direction.

Johnson is notable insofar as he spent his 20s and 30s sacrificing his health to make a bunch of money. And now he's burning that money to regain health and youth and is, through absurd amounts of effort, at least partially successful.

The other current respectable Anti-aging Guru Dr. David Sinclair, also looks younger than his actual age (55).

Which lends credence to the claim that his interventions improve SOMETHING.

BUT I kind of hate that we live in an era where makeup, plastic surgery, and other cosmetic technologies are mature enough that it is easy to fake youthfulness so we can't rely on our own eyes to judge.

I do wonder at the fact that various Hollywood Stars (Keanu, Tom Cruise, Sylvester Stallone, to name a few) can stay active and fit well past the age that normally people start falling apart slowly.

Johnson is notable insofar as he spent his 20s and 30s sacrificing his health to make a bunch of money. And now he's burning that money to regain health and youth and is, through absurd amounts of effort, at least partially successful.

Judging by the pictures in Time, he looks like the biggest fitness freak in the world, which he probably is. He looks about 10 years younger and will probably be one of these old guys that have a crystal-clear memory and can put on their socks standing up until they keel over in their nineties.

Which is not a bad thing at all, but it's a very long way from immortality.

He looks exactly his age to me. His skin just looks a little funny, like he exfoliated or something.

He looks 46 to you?

Absolutely. He has very wrinkly and loose skin that makes it impossible for him to be confused for someone in his 30s. I actually didn't know his age and guessed he was 45.