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Has anyone been tracking H5N1 bird flu? I see occasional doomposting updates from accounts like https://x.com/outbreakupdates/ and I'm trying to figure out if we're all sleeping on something about to go very bad, or if it's "under control" and/or likely to burn out. Haven't seen any recent posts about it on LessWrong, and I'd expect to if it were something (since they were right and early on SARS-CoV-2).
Yep, you'll see posts on Meddit every once and awhile.
The bad news: It's really really bad (as much as 50% CFR) and it's likely going to happen sooner rather than later. This is a real threat that will probably happen, BUT-
The good news: We actually have a vaccine stock already (only 5 mill doses IIRC), everyone is mad about the new vaccine type but we can roll that out fast if need be, and we really understand flu rather well. Flu mutates more frequently because of its structure but we know a lot about that, and what to look for in terms of human to human transmission and all kinds of other junk.
This is much less of an unknown and the U.S. would likely be able to do a safe and actually temporary lockdown (that...obviously a lot of people wouldn't listen to) that would solve the problem.
Other countries may be fucked.
Where are you getting that bird flu might be 50% CFR? I thought it hadn't spread to humans yet
+1. 50% CFR is a rather extraordinary claim. Data varies, but I am seeing 60% CFR for ebola.
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Random flu combinations is a yearly occurrence and something that is tracked by global public heath authorities. Also reminder that the flu is really fucking bad but we mostly forget about that because at risk persons are strongly incentivized to get flu shots.
Here's a link-
https://cdn.who.int/media/docs/default-source/wpro---documents/emergency/surveillance/avian-influenza/ai_20241025.pdf
It is worth noting that the type of flu most likely to result in human to human transmission does have a strong possibility of resulting in lower lethality.
However we've had presumed mammal to human transmission in the U.S. already, IIRC.
The problem is when it goes human to human (which it may not).
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