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PaperclipPerfector  7mo ago (text post)   2988 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for December 29, 2024

Do you have a dumb question that you're kind of embarrassed to ask in the main thread? Is there something you're just not sure about?

This is your opportunity to ask questions. No question too simple or too silly.

Culture war topics are accepted, and proposals for a better intro post are appreciated.

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Should I be worried about bird flu?

Can you list out the specific things that you would do differently if you were worried vs if you were not? The answers to some of them ("have an emergency kit, at least a week's worth of food an water", "have the sort of PPE you probably should have anyway if you ever do home improvement projects", "get and use an air filter") are "yes", the answer to others (e.g. "get a homestead that is robust to the end of civilization", "spend a lot of mental energy on panic but don't do anything") are "no", and then there are ones in the middle like "bet on increased volatility/ in the market" to which the answer is "maybe useful if you know what you're doing, but if you have to ask how to do it you're probably unsophisticated enough that playing the market is -EV".

I just wanna know the chances of another Covid Era

If anything really happens, it won't be the same.

I'll echo @Pasha. There's no more 4-month runway of kumbaya like there was five years ago. People will hear the updated analogue for "two weeks to slow the spread" and they'll absolutely lose their minds over it. Then you'll see seething redditors put screenshots of the reactions at the top of Reddit, where they in turn react, and the cycle will be complete.

You'll get the flu, old people will die, and the media may even prospire to keep the hysteria at a lower level this time around.

What will likely be different this time is that young people will be killed at greater rates than old people. That will affect people's willingness to lock down and get vaccinated, especially if the cfr is higher than covid's.

Young people are famously less risk-averse than old people -- although I guess the current crop of Zoomers/late Millenials may be a bit of an exception.

A repeat of the Spanish Flu seems unlikely to me given the particular circumstances that led to that strain disproportionately affecting young and healthy individuals i.e. an adaptation period among soldiers on the western front who were immunocompromised from extreme stress and injuries, in addition to close promixity and lack of hygiene. A more prototypical bad influenza pandemic is the 1957 Asian Flu outbreak, which is hardly a blip in the history books.

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