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So it looks like Elon Musk officially owns all of Twitter now, and he's already fired the CEO, CFO, and policy chief. I don't have any strong opinions on this, but does anyone want to stake some predictions?
Musk presents himself as a free speech absolutist, which is encouraging to me, but I'd be concerned about the conflict of interest. I anticipate there will be some accusations of throttling unfavorable opinions about either him or his companies (RIP rogue driverless Tesla videos). I think the tension between unrestricted speech and a quality user experience will continue to be a problem, as I can't identify an obvious solution. Blue checkmarks are making hilariously cataclysmic remarks but I predict Twitter will remain a favored haven for the journalist class.
My opinion of Musk is very low, I think he's essentially a fraud, so I don't have much hopes for his ability to improve Twitter.
Even if he does end up being a competent leader, I worry he will simply be unable to do much. It turns out Dorsey was a libertarian-leaning idealist all along, and he was unable to push his own company in that direction, and had to wait until retirement to actually start making idealistic noises again. If Musk does do anything, we're going to see another round of "No Clicks For Hate" or that WSJ article about Youtube that triggered the Adpocalypse.
I think the best case scenario we can realistically hope for is that he drives Twitter into the ground.
Then I guess I'll have to be optimistic based on Musk's track record with products I've personally witnessed:
Tesla really changed the game for electric cars. They're fast, powerful, cool, techy. People want them. At least in my PNW costal city, you see them everywhere now.
Starlink allows a friend to live in the middle of nowhere and still remote-desktop to work seamlessly. He reports that even online multiplayer gaming is doable with satellite internet.
SpaceX developed into an (I think, as a layman) impressive technology, doing things that previously weren't possible.
Like, I look around and really do see the Teslas on the street. I really do see the Starlink satellites in the sky. I've watched SpaceX launches. Admittedly, I haven't paid any attention to the financials, so maybe it's all going to come crashing down, but people have been saying that for years, and they're still going strong.
Musk's product range from working-I-suppose-but-wildly-overhyped to "I am confident we will have working in two years (or two years more... or two years more... or two years more...) .
And likewise I might very well be wrong, and Musk is going to change the world, but I'm worried about a lot of contrarians I sympathize with staking their reputation on him.
Man, why should you care how hyped they are? Objectively I think some might actually be underhyped, but regardless, why judge accomplishments by whether you think that people under- or overestimate them? Some of these products are enormously important.
My impression is his reputation is based on the hype around his products, rather than their actual value.
For example, a lot of people are pointing to SpaceX's cost reduction, but from what I'm reading that relies on overestimating the Space Shuttle launch costs, and some creative accounting on SpaceX's side. Take out the hype, and it seems you're left with some decent rockets, that haven't revolutionized anything.
OK, look, reputation is ALWAYS based on hype rather than based on actual value. That's kind of by definition how hype and reputation work--while they may have slightly different meanings, both refer to social standing rather than actual accomplishments. So having a "reputation based on hype around his products, rather than their actual value" is just usually true of all people in general.
But sorry for being overly literal, I get that what you're saying is that the hype outpaces the actual products. I don't really agree--my understanding is that both Tesla and SpaceX really have made some pretty major advancements--but I don't know enough to argue the point. The point I was making is that if we're trying to judge a man, we should judge his accomplishments, not judge whether his accomplishments match the hype around them. It's just SO MUCH more productive to argue about whether Edison invented the lightbulb than to argue about whether he deserves 1 million or 100,000 fans for his accomplishments.
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