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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   36655 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of January 20, 2025

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Help me understand an argument about the US-Mexico relationship

A friend and old-coworker recently posted in a group chat an article quote

«Trump … mulled sending military special forces into Mexico to fight drug cartels» [I couldn't find the article by quote, but maybe it's from a Mexican source]

They think that if that were to happen “both the general population and government unofficially would side with the narcos (for different reasons).” Radicalization and bad things would follow. Firstly, I thought these things already happened. Was Sicaro not just exaggerated for effect, but complete fiction?

We diverted for a bit into the politics of Mexico under the cartels. It was fun to be reminded that there still are areas not even the military will go into without cartel approval, that AMLO used to visit El Chapo’s mother regularly, that any information given to federal agencies or even directly to the president was pretty much immediately relayed to the cartels. Apparently, cartel-unfriendly political candidates are routinely assassinated. So the state seems to have been completely captured by the cartels. They have also deeply infiltrated the local and federal law enforcement agencies. The cartels have their own military equipment, intelligence agencies maybe, air force?, submaries (not armed though I hope?)

Still, even without local police or federal government involvement (who I understand most are assets of or actual narcos) I assumed the DEA/CIA/FBI still did shit to keep things in check, at least around the border and inside the US. Well actually, cartels are expanding into Colorado these days.

Enter Trump's executive order Designating Cartels and Other Organizations as Foreign Terrorist Organizations and Specially Designated Global Terrorists.

My friend was incensed, thinks that any action by special forces would be war, that the Mexican people and government will rally around the cartels, there would be terrorist attacks and sabotage by cartels/Mexican immigrants.

I’m afraid here is where I lost my cool a little bit. Paraphrasing:

Me

Do what you want in your country, seems like the people voted for this [probably not true given political assassinations/voter intimidation], but imo the US is within its rights to target the cartels that operate around/across the borders.

M. Bridge

If the USA starts a war with the neighbor to the South, that will not go well for anyone

Me

Not a war, just a special military operation ;)
This won't be a "war" because the Mexican military won't do shit
I imagine there might be an ultimatum delivered to the cartels, escalating to raids and precision bombing of cartel compounds/assets.

M. B

surely you're joking

Me

Why are the cartels so precious to Mexicans that an attack on them is an attack on their country and their pride?

M. B

because narcos have weapons, money and more

Me

and they also have military equipment, submarines, and more
But much worse signals intelligence, no f-35s, precision bombs or satellites, etc

M. B

that's still war

Me

Actually it's not war, there's just this new American cartel called "forces especiales" that has weapons, money, and more and that has the support of the president and that operates across the US-Mexico border
But if the Mexicans want to call it war then so be it

M. B

🤦

Me

I hope that cooler heads will prevail; Lebanon did not call it war when Israel fought and decapitated Hezbollah

M. Oldschool

There's actually an ex-Mexican special forces cartel trained by the CIA in insurgency/counter insurgency tactics that became the most violent cartel.

Me

[Mugatu: I feel like I'm taking crazy pills!]
I understand that Mexico is a cartel-run state, but why should America's cartel, the actual US government/military, not insist that they fuck off our borders
"we'll feel bad and consider going to war with you if you don't allow our muderous kidapping raping drug-and-people-trafficking home team do whatever it wants?"
Is that the argument?

I guess what I want to know is, Am I The Asshole?

Me

Do what you want in your country.

Was Mr B (or anyone else in the chat) Mexican?

In any case, it's not unusual to be scandalised about the possibility of a nation's sovereignty being so flagrantly violated (which is obviously what such an operation would do) - doubly so if the person you're speaking to feels some connection to the country itself. This isn't a criticism of the idea of the US directly intervening in such a way, which I'm too uneducated about to comment on.

Yes. I have family there through marriage. This would be pretty much the worst thing to happen in my adult life, for my country to invade the country of the other half of my family.

Why would it be? This assumes that all invasions are equally bad. Presumably your relatives are not in cartels. How would it even affect them?

That’s like saying, well your relatives aren’t in the taliban, how would a prolonged counterinsurgency war in Afghanistan even effect them?

By usual principles of implicature,

In any case, it's not unusual to be scandalised about the possibility of a nation's sovereignty being so flagrantly violated (which is obviously what such an operation would do) - doubly so if the person you're speaking to feels some connection to the country itself.

implies that sovereignty is relevant; if you agree with this, you are particularly upset because it's an invasion, not just because the cartels are being fought. But this particular invasion wouldn't be the kind of invasion that is aimed at civilians. To the extent that civlians are hurt, they'd be hurt by crackdowns on the cartels whether done by invasion or not.

Do you think citizens in Afghanistan suffered hardship during the US occupation?

Compared to what? Compared to no occupation, yes. Compared to a crackdown of similar intensity without the element of "occupation by US"? No.

'Living in a war zone is deeply unfortunate' is a general rule of thumb.

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