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PaperclipPerfector  3mo ago (text post)   3529 thread views

Small-Scale Question Sunday for January 26, 2025

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Thoughts about what's going on in markets right now? Nvidia and AVGO (the big AI compute production companies) just took a 17% dump.

People are saying that this is due to R1 proving that less compute is needed for good results, so there is less need for more capex (but OpenAI announced 500 billion of capex over the next four years, just a few days ago). I don't understand this though, if you can do good work with little compute, you should be able to do great work with more compute. If anything this should mean an acceleration towards singularity territory, timelines shortening. The hyperscalers will be forced to up their game and fight back, accelerate their releases. Deepseek is just at this moment down due to too high demand or what they call 'malicious activity'. As I write this I opened up a music video on youtube and found it was all AI for the visuals. Everyone needs more compute.

Also why is Facebook up when their open-source models have been so thoroughly trounced? Google and OpenAI/Microsoft have stuff comparable to R1.

I heard an alternate thesis that this was due to japan raising interest rates and upsetting the carry trades that support US tech valuations.

I hold both of these hard-hit companies so perhaps I'm coping a bit. I guess I've long believed that markets are irrational in the short term, so it doesn't matter if stocks go back to where they were on October 1st. It's all karmic consequences for buying Marvell (which also makes hardware for AI) just a few days ago. I heard that little voice inside telling me to wait for a red day and ignored it. It's the same old story: https://youtube.com/watch?v=61Q6wWu5ziY

Also why is Facebook up when their open-source models have been so thoroughly trounced? Google and OpenAI/Microsoft have stuff comparable to R1.

Because Meta's AI strategy was trying to prevent the other big players from building a moat, and Deepseek seems to be doing their work for them.

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