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Notes -
American midterm election predictions?
Does anyone wish to use this space to register predictions for outcomes in tomorrow's American midterm elections?
Personally, I take a kind of efficient markets approach to this stuff, so I'll defer to the betting consensus. But if you want your time-stamped judgment registered as part of the official Motte record, here's your chance!
Mods - please feel free to remove if you don't think this is a good fit for the space.
I've been specifically trying to avoid all but local/sports-related news for mental health reasons, but my read of the situation on the ground is that Democrats in my ordinarily "safe" blue state seem nervous. They've been really hammering on the Roe v Wade decision and "Election Deniers" but it doesn't seem to be getting any traction. Crime and the economy are issues 1 and 2 according to recent voter surveys in my state and the GOP has consistently polled better on those issues. I expect the GOP to significantly outperform polling/forecasts, but I am skeptical of this leading to a Reagan-esque "red wave". I'm guessing GOP takes the House, with an even-split/slim GOP majority in the Senate.
I realize that I'm incredibly biased in my own way and have my own information bubble, but it really seems like the whole "election denier" and "insurrection" narrative is just not very appealing to centrist normies. Regardless of the facts on the ground, the narrative just sounds weird and conspiratorial to quite a few people. I've seen people in my state's subreddit asking why Mandela Barnes doesn't pound how Ron Johnson delivering "fake electors" and I really think it's because the story takes awhile to explain and sounds super weird. That's kind of interesting in its own right - if there really was a failed coup attempt, I think most of the grilling class would look at people are really mad about it they're the weirdos.
Likewise, it seems to me that going on at length about January 6th too strongly invites people to think about which side of the political spectrum they seem to recall having some affiliation with riots in 2020.
The narrative doesn’t appeal to normies because normies think they’re hypocrites. Older ones remember ‘the only difference between Hitler and bush is Hitler was elected’, Stacey abrams comes off as ‘fat black lady who claimed Georgia elections were rigged and then got mad at everyone for claiming Georgia elections were rigged’, most people don’t think J6 was a coup attempt, etc. Bothsidesism is a potent weapon for defusing ‘danger to democracy’ talk, and the grillpilled public believes it.
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