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Do American on The Motte feel that the country is generally in favour of breaking from its old European alliances? I am not sure I have got that sense when visiting but I've visited only fairly D-leaning areas in recent years.
From the British/European point of view, one has the sense from current reporting that a significant rebalancing is happening, one that I would characterise as going beyond wanting to reduce American spending on e.g. Ukraine, and towards decisively breaking with European countries out of gut dislike, and beginning instead to form either a US-Russian alliance of sympathies, or if not that, then at least a relationship with Russia that is rhetorically much friendlier than that with Europe. I think the fear is starting to take root in Europe that the US would effectively switch sides in return for Russia granting it mineral rights in Russian-occupied areas of Ukraine. This heel turn seems unlikely, but things are murky enough that it is worrying people.
I feel that this rebalancing is already working in a way towards achieving stated Trump goals – it certainly is succeeding in restoring Europe's appetite for military spending (underinvestment here is one thing Trump has been consistently right about but European leaders have buried their heads in the sand on, hoping he'd go away). But the current situation re Ukraine is also sending confusing signals, as it had previously seemed as though the US wanted Europe to step up and be part of a solution for Ukraine, whereas currently it seems they actively want to stop Europe from having a role in peace talks. The motive for this appears to be stopping Europe from asking terms of Russia that would delay a solution the US and Russia find jointly satisfactory, though perhaps there is more going on beneath the surface.
I did not have the impression that the American population generally has gone through this kind of Europe->Russia realignment in their hearts, Russians still being a regular foil for the good guys in movies (said movies coming from liberal-leaning Hollywood, sure). I have the impression that moving towards Russia is an aspect of foreign policy that Trump has not built domestic support for. But maybe this is wrong. Maybe the average American now thinks not only "Europe should contribute more to solve their own defence problems", but furthermore, "Europe should get its nose out of international affairs and attempt to help only when it's spoken to. We, Russia and China are in charge now."
I'm writing this without especially detailed knowledge of foreign policy, but I'm more interested here in the emotional calibration of ordinary Americans generally. What outcomes would they accept, what outcomes are they afraid of, who do they feel warm to and who not, and to what extent do they feel entirely insulated from global events, alliances and enmities?
I feel like NATO expansion was a complete own-goal. What does the United States get out of any NATO member state that joined after 1990? Are we really expecting the Polish winged hussars to open a second front on the Mongolian Steppes in response to a Chinese attack on the US? These states are a massive liability for no discernible benefit. I would support kicking Eastern Europe out of NATO. If Western Europe doesn’t agree to that, then they can start their own alliance with blackjack and hookers.
NATO expansion to the east was a great move in hindsight.
Russia was always going to be hostile to any nation that tried to project power east of Berlin, so the only options were to either kick Russia while it was down or stand by and let it reassemble the borders of the USSR, then fight it on much more equal terms.
I’d file it under “nice work, if you can get it”. If they had gotten Ukraine into NATO as a fait-accompli, I think it would have been a good move, and would leave the alliance in a pretty rock solid strategic position over the years. But the State Department badly misjudged Russia’s temperament and now they’re throwing money down a hole and having to contemplate a war that they are under-armed to fight.
What do you think would have happened if Ukraine had been accepted into NATO overnight on February 22, 2022?
Do you think Russia wouldn't have invaded? If you think the reason it wouldn't have worked is because it's too close to the invasion, when do you think it would have worked? 2014? 2017?
No one is going to get into nuclear Armageddon to defend Eastern Europe except maybe the British whose foreign policy establishment has been nuts for over a century and who burned their empire and wealth to the ground in order to perpetuate their nuttery.
What has happened over the last few years is well-beyond any requirement of Article 5. Despite the constant desperate framing by neocons and other anti-Russian warhawk ethnics who have weaseled their way into the machinations of the US and NATO foreign policy establishment, it does not require the other parties to declare or go to war.
Whether NATO snuck in a brigade in 2014 or 2022 makes no difference. At some point, that bluff is going to be called.
If you’re unfamiliar with the idiom, “nice work if you can get it” carries with it the sly implication that said work would be nigh-impossible or at least very difficult to get.
I’m on record here several times saying that I think it was a stupid plan because of its high likelihood of backfiring. I think if they were going to try to pull it off, it would have best to do it sometime back when Alanis Morrisette and overly baggy jeans were still popular.
Oh, fair enough!
No one was going to do that during that time period. If you had told the people of the time that in 25 years they were going to be fighting over the Oskil River with Russia, I think they would have assumed nuclear war had already happened. It took the silliness of 9/11 and the initial success of the Afghanistan and Iraq Wars to make NATO think this was something which could happen.
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