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naraburns  nihil supernum  2yr ago (text post)   Edited 2yr ago   19367 thread views

USA Election Day 2022 Megathread

Tuesday November 8, 2022 is Election Day in the United States of America. In addition to Congressional "midterms" at the federal level, many state governors and other more local offices are up for grabs. Given how things shook out over Election Day 2020, things could get a little crazy.

...or, perhaps, not! But here's the Megathread for if they do. Talk about your local concerns, your national predictions, your suspicions re: election fraud and interference, how you plan to vote, anything election related is welcome here. Culture War thread rules apply, with the addition of Small-Scale Questions and election-related "Bare Links" allowed in this thread only (unfortunately, there will not be a subthread repository due to current technical limitations).

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At least in my county, early voting totals seem to track Election Day ones. E.g. 54.3% for Abbott early, 55.3% day-of. Even for small races like state BoE seat [REDACTED]—55.6% vs. 57.2%. This suggests that a long tail of early voters probably didn’t drive the effect.

I’m inclined to think narrative control doesn’t really explain the outcomes.

I’m inclined to think narrative control doesn’t really explain the outcomes.

To clarify, I don't think narrative control explains the outcomes, but rather narrative control explains the health of the political machine aparatus, which works to leverage other factors to explain the outcomes. It's not an allegation of direct control, but rather that it helped keep the party together.

Early voting in Texas seems to be less democratic relative to day of voting than in other states.

That being said, I would be interested in seeing data on the gap between the ultra conservatives who generally outpaced Abbott and Abbott himself for both early and day of voting- I suspect that the some number of people who voted for Sid miller but not Abbott(Given that Miller is a nationalist who’s most notable for headlining an anti mask protest with Alex Jones, they presumably abstained for the governor race or voted constitutional/libertarian rather than supporting Beto) almost all voted on Election Day.

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