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Trump just kicked Zelenskyy out of the White House after a public shouting match.
I've never seen anything like this. I sort of expected Trump to give him a hard time just for the cameras, but this seems to have legitimately hurt relations. Zelenskyy was in town to sign the much-anticipated minerals deal. From what I can hear the deal was not signed.
Ukraine needs the US much more than the US needs Ukraine. Could Zelenskyy not keep his pride contained for a few hours?
"Have you said thank you?" "Yes, frequently." "But have you said thank you today?"
This is the way you talk to a child, not a junior partner. The US has bought vast amounts of soft power in Ukraine and a permanent ally on the doorstep of its long-term geopolitical adversary, and is squandering those expensive gains for the sake of Trump's TV show.
Zelensky is asking for American boys to die on the steppe in Ukraine on the other side of the world. And he's spent years trying to get that to happen. Honestly, quite a bit more should have been required of Zelensky.
Hardly, Ukraine is losing the war and has no path to victory. The only question left is how much Russia wants to take. And the only thing which stops that is vast escalation by a coalition putting boots on the ground in Russia to stop them. The European militaries are little more than paper jobs programs with empty armories.
The only country which isn't is Poland and you notice their behavior lately? They have no interest either. This is all about Europeans trying to get Americans to fight their war for them against Russia. No thanks; if Europeans want sovereignty they're going to have to earn it. If they want to fight Russia, they're going to have to convince their populations to hop into the shredder like so many poor Ukrainians.
Trump was trying to get some deal where Ukraine gets the "soft security guarantee" of Americans have property and interest in the country which would mean ongoing American interest in the long-term which should deter Russians from taking the rest of the country. This is something the Russians may accept. They will not accept and will not end the war if any European troops or "peacekeepers" are on the ground there. They will just keep fighting.
Instead, Zelensky attempted to push for hard security guarantees in front of cameras, which means a promise for American boys dying in Ukraine. So now, that's all likely lost.
I am curious what you think about this security guarantee: Russia gets to keep the land it annexed, which is more Russian aligned anyway (right?), but the rest of Ukraine gets to join NATO.
That offer is DOA because it would put NATO military within 300mi from Moscow. Russia has repeatedly stated no NATO membership for Ukraine and constitutionally guaranteed neutrality, but if the border was pushed back significantly (like the Dnieper River significantly) they may find it acceptable enough given some other concessions like having at least part of it demilitarized.
My analysis is based on my belief that Russia is winning the war, that the only reason the lines are the way they are is because Moscow prefers the fighting to happen in the east closer to Russian territory where they can demilitarize Ukraine by destroying its armies and burning its equipment (and the treasuries and armories of Europe to boot) and, most sadly, a shocking amount of Ukraine's best. As time goes on, this will just get worse until we have a Germany in 1944-45 situation where collapse leads to a slaughter of their remaining military forces.
The US has already used most of its leverage in the Biden administration. The only thing left is to appeal to Russia to avoid the butcher's bill, but given the above Russia has already paid most of the cost and political will so they're going to need a whole lot to stop.
Why is that the magic number? Maybe the map is distorting things but Ukraine being in NATO doesn't seem much different than Finland, Latvia and Estonia being nearby and much closer to St Petersburg and not that far from Moscow. Ukraine minus Donbas buffer seems like more of the same spitting distance.
Leverage: we could just say okay this bullshit has gone on long enough. The unilateral peace deal is the free part of Ukraine is part of NATO now. Keep Crimea and Donbas etc. Well played, Putin, you got your buffer. Now kindly cut the shit or our air forces will light you up.
Are they going to nuke over that? Seems unlikely.
And if they nuke ukraine over that, are we going to go full-MAD? Also seems unlikely.
We don't need nuclear weapons to open a can of whup ass on Russia. We can use our conventional forces for that and the gloves will be off if they use nukes in a war of conquest.
And even if we obliterate all of their power projection capability, it's still better for them to just take that and not choose suicide by nuking us directly.
The only reason we need to use nukes is to guarantee Armageddon if they nuke us.
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