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Culture War Roundup for the week of March 10, 2025

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China has a new AI system out taking the world by storm, Manus. It's an autonomous AI agent that, according to Forbes changes everything.

I've seen a LOT of hype so far about AI agents, but the claims from this one actually seem pretty impressive, if they are true. Forbes says:

For instance, given a zip file of resumes, Manus doesn’t just rank candidates; it reads through each one, extracts relevant skills, cross-references them with job market trends, and presents a fully optimized hiring decision—complete with an Excel sheet it generated on its own. When given a vague command like “find me an apartment in San Francisco,” it goes beyond listing search results—it considers crime statistics, rental trends, even weather patterns, and delivers a shortlist of properties tailored to the user’s unstated preferences.

Manus uses the by now common "stack" of AI models, where there's a master-slave relationship between a head model that looks at the problem, and then sub models which are more specialized to go and do specific tasks. I can't quite tell from a quick search what the key breakthrough Manus made is, as my understanding is other agent AIs already have a similar set up. There is talk about asynch cloud work, but again, I didn't think that was an entirely new thing.

Either way, similar to the DeepSeek R1 reveal, there are a lot of breathless articles coming out about China "taking the lead" i the AI race. I agree that this is a concerning development for the U.S., given that we now have two Chinese labs that have seemingly joined the leading edge out of nowhere. Of course, it remains to be seen if this press blitz actually reflects seriously impressive new ground, or is just a good hype campaign.

Anyone who has used this or looked more into the details - what are your thoughts about Manus so far?

I was rather suspicious about Manus when I saw a bunch of Twitter accounts who were this close to being unfollowed or muted on account of being breathless hypemen lauding it as revolutionary. A relatively unknown company? No previous releases? Little to no information about the system?

Then it turned out that Manus is a thin-wrapper over Claude 3.7 Sonnet.

Anything good about is almost entirely down to Sonnet. Which is a great model!

Well, at least it isn't a ChatGPT wrapper. This demonstrates slightly better taste, albeit execution that's a joke.

Claude 3.7 reasoning has been very disappointing for me. It tends to be a paragraph that boils down to {{user}} has requested a reply, I should give him one.

Huh. I haven't used it, because Anthropic doesn't remotely have the capacity to cater to what paying users except. Does it do this for tasks that actually require reasoning?

I'm quite happy with every other reasoning model I've tried.

I’m not doing maths or anything. I use it for schedule management, task list prioritisation etc. I would expect them to benefit from reasoning - indeed, that’s exactly what I want the reasoning for. Being able to do maths is nice but nothing to do with the majority of my use cases.

The contrast with, say, R1 which will produce a full set of reasoning for whatever you ask (and then go off on the wrong direction) is notable. Perhaps the truncated reasoning is meant to produce more tractable behaviour; fair enough if so but not an upgrade from 3.5.