astralcodexten.substack.com
I made this a top level post because I think people here might want to discuss it but you can remove it if it doesn't meet your standards.
Edit: removed my opinion of Scott from the body
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Notes -
I can't stop thinking about this whole situation. These are, metaphorically, my people. They are about my age. They share my interests. They hang around similar online communities. Hell, SBF even looks and dresses like me (which is to say, poorly). How did they end up running a multi-billion dollar crypto empire? Was it just luck? Good market timing? Family ties and connections? I would have said that they're just smarter, but I think the events of the last week have shot holes in that hypothesis.
Why can't I get it out of my mind? Is it because I feel some sort of injustice at how the Ivy-league well-connected have life on easy mode? Is it because Caroline reminds me of the type of girl I always imagined I'd end up with but never met? Maybe it's just because there's nothing else going on in the world and this "happening" has expanded to fill my attention span. Hardly an idle moment goes by where I don't see that stupid wood nymph costume flash before my eyes or hear, "enormously valuable existence," "double or nothing coin flips and high leverage," go through my head.
It hasn't interfered with my normal productivity, but I don't think I watched a single minute of football this weekend.
Ambition, conscientiousness, and a thirst for working long and hard hours are all necessary factors. Moreso than intelligence.
No one factor is sufficient by itself though. You need all of them, plus luck, plus the right connections.
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