This weekly roundup thread is intended for all culture war posts. 'Culture war' is vaguely defined, but it basically means controversial issues that fall along set tribal lines. Arguments over culture war issues generate a lot of heat and little light, and few deeply entrenched people ever change their minds. This thread is for voicing opinions and analyzing the state of the discussion while trying to optimize for light over heat.
Optimistically, we think that engaging with people you disagree with is worth your time, and so is being nice! Pessimistically, there are many dynamics that can lead discussions on Culture War topics to become unproductive. There's a human tendency to divide along tribal lines, praising your ingroup and vilifying your outgroup - and if you think you find it easy to criticize your ingroup, then it may be that your outgroup is not who you think it is. Extremists with opposing positions can feed off each other, highlighting each other's worst points to justify their own angry rhetoric, which becomes in turn a new example of bad behavior for the other side to highlight.
We would like to avoid these negative dynamics. Accordingly, we ask that you do not use this thread for waging the Culture War. Examples of waging the Culture War:
-
Shaming.
-
Attempting to 'build consensus' or enforce ideological conformity.
-
Making sweeping generalizations to vilify a group you dislike.
-
Recruiting for a cause.
-
Posting links that could be summarized as 'Boo outgroup!' Basically, if your content is 'Can you believe what Those People did this week?' then you should either refrain from posting, or do some very patient work to contextualize and/or steel-man the relevant viewpoint.
In general, you should argue to understand, not to win. This thread is not territory to be claimed by one group or another; indeed, the aim is to have many different viewpoints represented here. Thus, we also ask that you follow some guidelines:
-
Speak plainly. Avoid sarcasm and mockery. When disagreeing with someone, state your objections explicitly.
-
Be as precise and charitable as you can. Don't paraphrase unflatteringly.
-
Don't imply that someone said something they did not say, even if you think it follows from what they said.
-
Write like everyone is reading and you want them to be included in the discussion.
On an ad hoc basis, the mods will try to compile a list of the best posts/comments from the previous week, posted in Quality Contribution threads and archived at /r/TheThread. You may nominate a comment for this list by clicking on 'report' at the bottom of the post and typing 'Actually a quality contribution' as the report reason.
Jump in the discussion.
No email address required.
Notes -
Official Ukrainian numbers (which are 933k+ as of today) are for casualties (the term that is used in the MoD reports is "combat losses"). Casualties include killed, wounded, captured, and missing.
Oh, totally misread that. That's actually fairly credible although on the high end as an estimate I would guess, I take back my accusations of them also selling obviously silly numbers. However a full million out of the Russian workforce would leave more ripples than we have seen I would assume, like this interview suggested (from December, but his point about a million losses being impossible to hide presumably still stands): https://frontelligence.substack.com/p/war-deficits-and-the-russian-economy
...
I would be very interested in your estimates, defined as you wish (KIA, KIA+wounded too badly to return to service or whatever) for both sides. What kind of ratio do you think it is?
...
Do you think it's consistent to have A) a 2:1 ratio in favor of Russia, B) Russia possessing a larger military C) Russia unable to achieve an operational breakthrough since early 2022? I think A) can't exist with both B) and C), but I assume you have another thought on that? Is there a precedent for a larger army on the offensive being unable to advance (and even losing ground in mid to late 2022) despite killing at a 2:1 ratio?
There's also A) a 2:1 ratio in favor of Russia, with D) Oryx (or whatever other open source counting wrecks) showing vastly more equipment losses for Russia, but I assume you would discount that as Ukraine being less mechanized, or Russian footage not being available?
However, no worries if you don't want to go into the weeds on this, I really think we can't finally resolve it until the war ends.
...
I think this misses the point myself and others raised in response to your thread. "Killing people" via constant attacks into fortified positions where the only reward is another trench to attack and wire to chew on is the failure state, all doctrine over the last century is basically attempts to create or restore options for maneuver rather than positional warfare as it fundamentally sucks for the attacker. The fact Russia is unable to do so shows the weak position it is in, and the massive losses it must be taking. Breakthroughs are hard, and the developments throughout the war have made them harder, but attacking without a breakthrough always causes huge losses and is always the less preferred option.
Russia still might grind out a victory under such conditions from an overmatch of manpower, but it's not a sign of doing well. Indeed, it's incompatible with a positive casualty ratio, if Ukraine has less manpower and that has been depleted faster than Russias for 3 straight years why haven't they managed to restore that maneuver? When Ukraine found gaps in the line they charged in, and slapped about the 4th Guards tank division so effectively that they captured more armor than Russia wanted to set as a maximum for post war Ukraine in their stupid peace conditions. Losses like those would leave a shadow, we are not seeing that shadow, so it seems very unlikely that the losses are there.
I guess those reading this might have changed some of their opinions, but we are something like a factor of 4 off (2:1 vs 1:2), so I guess we'll just have to see.
...
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link
More options
Context Copy link