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ulyssessword  9d ago (text post)   1681 thread views

Canada Federal Election 2025

Today is the day!

Poll aggregator: https://338canada.com/

Live results: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/

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What are the actual odds that Alberta secedes? How likely are Saskatchewan, Manitoba to go with it? Is it even possible for the non-Vancouver parts of BC to go?

Albertans saying they'll secede because the Liberals won should be viewed the same as Democrats saying they'll move to Canada because Trump won. Lots will talk about it, some will try, but not enough to make a difference.

According to a survey conducted a few weeks ago, support for secession is about one-third in Alberta, Saskatchewan, and Quebec, and one-fifth or less everywhere else.

For context, Texas secession varies from 30% to 66% depending on the recent news, wording of the survey, etc. That makes this sound like the same order of improbability.

That makes this sound like the same order of improbability.

Yes, but Texas has never actually tried to do this.

Quebec has actually tried it a few times; this idea is in the Canadian political lexicon to a much greater extent than the American one for that reason.

And there's no southern America that's richer and larger egging on Texas. There's no way they're equally improbable.

Also, secession is explicitly legal in Canada.

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