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ulyssessword  10mo ago (text post)   2369 thread views

Canada Federal Election 2025

Today is the day!

Poll aggregator: https://338canada.com/

Live results: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/

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So question to people who know Canadian politics better: how much Trump's "51 state" shenanigans mattered? In my opinion - which, me not being a Canadian, together with $5 gives you a cup of coffee - Trudeau was a disaster. It looks like Canadians, however, want more of the same. Is it because they really like what Canada is becoming under Trudeau? Would like to hear opinions from people with good background in Canadian politics, especially Canadians themselves.

When Biden was swapped out for Harris, she couldn't really escape being Biden's VP. She was part of his administration, had participated in covering up his decline, and didn't offer a clear idea of what she would do differently. Carney, on the other hand, wasn't even in Canada for a lot of Trudeau's time in office. And his economic background and ties to Europe (non-American allies) make him look competent to confront Trump's economic threat. Sure his policy platform might not be that different, but there's a general feeling that voting for Carney isn't voting for more Trudeau. (Or maybe that means the Liberals are just better at marketing than the Democrats.)

Trump definitely mattered. I'm not sure Trudeau would have stepped down when he did without Trump's threats. There was a real sense that Canada needed somebody new to confront/deal with Trump, and Trudeau tried at Mar-a-Lago but couldn't. Also, Liberals really leaned into painting Poilievre as Trump-lite, even planting Trump-style merchandise at Conservative events, and that just wouldn't work as well if Trump had played nice or if Harris had been elected. Prior to Trump's 51st state stuff, the Conservatives had a clear lead in all the polls. But a lot of people who might've voted NDP or Bloc to stick it to Trudeau instead voted Liberal to stick it to the Americans.

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