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ulyssessword  6mo ago (text post)   2069 thread views

Canada Federal Election 2025

Today is the day!

Poll aggregator: https://338canada.com/

Live results: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/

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So question to people who know Canadian politics better: how much Trump's "51 state" shenanigans mattered? In my opinion - which, me not being a Canadian, together with $5 gives you a cup of coffee - Trudeau was a disaster. It looks like Canadians, however, want more of the same. Is it because they really like what Canada is becoming under Trudeau? Would like to hear opinions from people with good background in Canadian politics, especially Canadians themselves.

Conservatives in Canada have a really really hard time not being seen as the most regressive of the US republicans (and it doesn’t actually even matter what they say or do). There was an expression that went something like “When America sneezes, Canada catches a cold.”

I know intelligent people who were absolutely convinced the CPC was coming for gay rights and their uteruses (the leader of the CPC grew up with two dads). Combine that with our culture of TDS and you are going to have people doing anything to keep the CPC out.

Somewhat interestingly, the CPC actually got a fairly respectable percentage of the vote (around 41.5%, last time I checked) - it isn’t uncommon for the CPC to win with a percentage around 37%. Most of the reason they lost was because the NDP absolutely torpedoed their party, and most of those votes went Liberals.

Edit, because I just saw this today. https://torontosun.com/news/national/donald-trump-brags-that-he-cost-pierre-poilievre-federal-election. Take it with a bit of a grain of salt, as the Toronto Sun is definitely right wing (and honestly veers a bit hard in that direction for me personally), but it implies that Trump, at least, believes he did.

Canadian parties are more fluid than American parties. Leftists seem generally very willing to swap between the Liberals and NDP, and within Quebec the Bloc, so if you don't like one right now, you just switch for a bit. That seems to weaken general anti-left arguments. Uniting the right wing parties under the CPC got Harper elected but also gives the left a single target.

Also the "right" is far from a unified front, as it is sort of awkwardly mashing together the progressive conservatives and Reform types.

The Jivani interview (that's JD Vance's bff) last night coming right out and blaming Ford for the defeat flabbergasted the CBC panel. Quite funny to see

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