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Canada Federal Election 2025

Today is the day!

Poll aggregator: https://338canada.com/

Live results: https://newsinteractives.cbc.ca/elections/federal/2025/results/

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Polls closed in Newfoundland two hours ago, and it's not looking good for the pollsters. CBC has called two seats for the Conservatives and they're leading in a third, while three have been called for the Liberals and they're leading in a fourth. The prediction was 7-0 Liberal (two "toss up", five "Lib. Likely").

The Maritimes are closer to the prediction, with the Conservatives leading/called in 8 ridings vs. the prediction of 7.

I'm confused about how Canadian regions are divided. Which ridings are you counting? Central Newfoundland, Terra Nova, Avalon, Long Range, Labrador...what am I missing?

I'm confused about how Canadian regions are divided.

Join the club. There are multiple different systems used interchangeably. Some of the regions include:

  • the Maritimes: Nova Scotia, New Brunswick, and PEI
  • Atlantic Canada: the Maritimes plus Newfoundland and Labrador
  • Quebec
  • Ontario
  • Central Canada: Quebec and Ontario
  • Western Canada: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, Alberta, and sometimes BC
  • the Prairie Provinces: Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and usually Alberta
  • BC
  • the North: Yukon, NWT, and Nunavut.

Which ridings are you counting? Central Newfoundland, Terra Nova, Avalon, Long Range, Labrador...what am I missing?

You're missing Cape Spear and St John's East.

Better yet: Manitoba is only “Western Canada” if you’re in Toronto or farther east. Ask people from Manitoba where they are and they’ll tell you they’re in the centre of Canada and Western Canada is everything from Saskatchewan on, which is damn fucking right if you look at an actual map. And then tell people in Québec you’re from Manitoba or Saskatchewan and they’ll say “Oh, like you’re from the Midwest?” Which is some sort of frequent Mandela effect-type misapplication of a purely American term by people for whom it’s all just Anglophone flyover country anyways.

Nah, I'm from Saskatchewan, and Manitoba is one of us. We're both part of Western Canada, along with Alberta (but not BC).

they’ll tell you they’re in the centre of Canada and Western Canada is everything from Saskatchewan on, which is damn fucking right if you look at an actual map.

Now I want geographically-defined regions. Anything below the 49th parallel is the "Deep South", 49-55 is "South", 55-66.5 is "Central", and anything in the Arctic circle is "North", with 80+ degrees being the "Far North". BC and Alberta are "West", Saskatchewan, Manitoba, and western Ontario are "Central", while the rest of Ontario, Quebec, and Atlantic Canada is "East".

“Oh, like you’re from the Midwest?”

See also: 38 degrees in the Middle East