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PaperclipPerfector  8mo ago (text post)   5138 thread views

Transnational Thursday for May 15, 2025

Transnational Thursday is a thread for people to discuss international news, foreign policy or international relations history. Feel free as well to drop in with coverage of countries you’re interested in, talk about ongoing dynamics like the wars in Israel or Ukraine, or even just whatever you’re reading.

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Here is the more polished "global risks brief" my team creates from the items above (and others). The executive summary is:

Moody’s downgraded the US credit rating as the US budget deficit grows and US borrowing costs rise. House Republicans are advancing a budget that would increase the deficit further. Meanwhile, China is reducing its holdings of US Treasuries and its dependencies on foreign components in its supply chains as it seeks to de-risk its economy from the US and the West.

Google announced a new coding agent, AlphaEvolve, that has creative problem-solving abilities. Gulf states agreed to more than $1T in US investments and joint enterprises during a visit by Trump to the Middle East, including joint AI ventures. Forecasters estimated a 28% chance (range, 25-30%) that the US will pass a 10-year ban on states regulating AI by the end of 2025.

Negotiations between the US and Iran continue. Iran has signaled willingness to limit uranium enrichment and allow inspections in exchange for sanctions being lifted. Forecasters estimated that there is a 46% chance (range, 40%-50%) that the US and Iran will sign an agreement about Iran’s nuclear program by the end of August.

The ceasefire between India and Pakistan is holding. The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Turkey has officially disbanded. Israel has launched a new, major offensive in Gaza. Putin did not attend the first direct ceasefire talks with Ukraine since early in the war.

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