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PaperclipPerfector  3d ago (text post)   14601 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of May 19, 2025

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Scott briefly observes, "The only thing about COVID nobody talks about anymore is the 1.2 million deaths.

That’s 1.2 million American deaths. Globally it’s officially 7 million, unofficially 20 - 30 million. But 1.2 million American deaths is still a lot. It’s more than Vietnam plus 9/11 plus every mass shooting combined - in fact, more than ten times all those things combined. It was the single highest-fatality event in American history, beating the previous record-holder - the US Civil War - by over 50%. All these lives seem to have fallen into oblivion too quietly to be heard over the noise of Lab Leak Debate #35960381.

Maybe it’s because they were mostly old people? Old people have already lived a long life, nobody can get too surprised about them dying. But although only a small fraction of COVID deaths were young people, a small fraction of a large number can still be large: the pandemic killed 250,000 <65-year-old Americans, wiping out enough non-seniors to populate Salt Lake City. More military-age young men died in COVID than in Iraq/Afghanistan. Even the old people were somebody’s spouse or parent or grandparent; many should have had a good 5 - 10 years left.

Usually I’m the one arguing that we have to do cost-benefit analysis, that it’s impractical and incoherent to value every life at infinity billion dollars. And indeed, most lockdown-type measures look marginal on a purely economic analysis, and utterly fail one that includes hedonic costs. Rejecting some safety measures even though they saved lives was probably the right call. Still, I didn’t want to win this hard. People are saying things like “COVID taught us that scientists will always exaggerate how bad things will be.” I think if we’d known at the beginning of COVID that it would kill 1.2 million Americans, people would have thought that whatever warnings they were getting, or panicky responses were being proposed, were - if anything - understated.1

A better comparison for 1.2 million Americans dying would be the Spanish Flu: An estimated 675,000 Americans died, while the total population was estimated to be round 106,000,000. (The 2020 estimated population was around 331,500,000.)

One problem I have with the online debates about covid policy is there's no clear counterfactual: 2021 deaths were higher than 2020 deaths, which is bad for arguments that containment policies were only protecting the most vulnerable at the expense of the general population, because the most vulnerable had disproportionately died in 2020 and management had improved. It's possible that a different set of policies would have resulted in disproportionately more QALYs lost by lower-risk demographics, due to the non-linear dynamics of disease transmission (don't forget rates of mutation). I don't really care to defend any policy, since there were a lot of avoidable mistakes, but I think the criticism should be more specific and measured.

(Edit: Scott's Lockdown Effectiveness: Much More Than You Wanted To Know, published July 1, 2021 - anyone know if there's been much change in the understanding of NPI effectiveness?)

It's difficult to talk about covid deaths without also talking about how the data was recorded.

For example, if someone was in a nasty car accident and died in the hospital. They would be considered a covid related death if they tested positive for covid.

There are other examples I could give (data taken during protests, etc) and we can talk about how often this actually happened but once data becomes suspicious, it's difficult to take it seriously.

presumably, you can just compare deaths across a covid and non-covid period to get a rough estimate of covid deaths. i doubt the policies put in place to fight covid led to a large number of extra deaths in the short term.

Somebody on the Scott-post did cite a paper doing exactly that -- in fact they take it a step further and look exclusively at mortality among people involved with the hospital system (where testing was manditory) but without a positive covid test. (matched cohort, 2018 vs 2020)

https://bmcpublichealth.biomedcentral.com/articles/10.1186/s12889-025-21782-9

Your doubt appears misplaced:

Our results indicate that during the first pandemic wave and the ensuing months, the death rate of people who were free of COVID-19 in BC (i.e., always tested negative) more than tripled that of a matched pre-pandemic cohort. In absolute terms, the group with the largest increase consisted of those with cardiovascular disorders, but in relative terms, the largest increase occurred among people who were not only COVID-negative but also had no previously diagnosed NCD, signaling that some of them may represent incident cases that escalated to death before routine detection and treatment was provided. The spike in deaths among COVID-negative people seemed to coincide with the period of almost total health system shutdown for non-COVID-related complaints.

Why not? It's prettymuch the largest confounder in human history in terms of widespread behavior modification.

There's enough countries/regions in the world on various points of the infection virulence/lockdown severity scale you should be able to work out a metastudy

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