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I'm dragging up the gender, dating, and fertility discourse for one last rodeo.
The below analysis is a possible infohazard for young single males. It contains analysis done by LLMs, but I solemnly swear I drafted this through my own brainpower, using AI only for the analysis I was too lazy to do myself.
I'm following upon a comment I made about a year ago that pulled out some raw numbers on the quality of women in the U.S., and how this might impact the desire of men to actually develop themselves and find one of those women and settle down.
At the time I didn't bother doing the work to produce an actual estimate of how many women would match the basic crtieria, given that these are NOT independent variables. The though occurred to me that AIs are the perfect solution for exactly this type of laziness, and now have the capability to do this task without completely making up numbers.
So, based on my old post, I chose 9 particular criteria that I think would ‘fairly’ qualify a woman as ‘marriageable.':
Single and looking (of course).
Cishet, and thus not LGBT identified.
Not ‘obese.’
Not a mother already.
No ‘acute’ mental illness.
No STI.
Less than $50,000 in student loan debt.
5 or fewer sex partners (‘bodies’).
Under age 30.
And ask both ChatGPT and Grok to attempt to estimate the actual population of women in the U.S. that pass all these filters, accounting for how highly correlated each of the variables are.
Notable criteria I omitted:
Religious affiliation
Race
Political affiliation
Career
Drug use
Sex work/Onlyfans
I argue that a reasonable man would NOT want to ‘compromise’ on any of the original criteria, whereas the omitted ones are comparatively negotiable, or alternatively, are already captured in one of the original criteria.
Would you accept a woman who was carrying $50k in student loan debt into the relationship? I guess maybe if she was a doctor or lawyer or made enough money to justify it. Much higher than that and it starts to suggest financial recklessness.
5 as a body count is definitely an ‘arbitrary’ number, but again, you get much above that and it implies more bad decision-making. Ditto for being STI positive.
The age one is probably the most ‘unfair,’ but if having kids is a goal then this is pretty close to the ‘reasonable’ cutoff given the ticking fertility clock. Adjust upward if needed, I guess.
Here is the ChatGPT conversation. I used o3 in this case.
Here is Grok, specifically Grok 3.
In each case I used the “Deep Research” mode for the main query. I used identical prompts to start them off, they each seemingly did slightly different interpretations of the prompt. I was not using any fancy, complex prompt engineering to try and force it to think like a statistician or avoid hallucinations.
ChatGPT Gives this conclusion:
Grok comes to quite the similar conclusion:
Then I asked the truly cursed followup question: “how many men in the U.S. might be seeking these eligible women and thus how much competition is there for this population? How many are likely to ‘fail.’"
ChatGPT:
Emphasis Mine.
Grok:
Then the followup, when I tell it to extend the age range:
The error bars are pretty large on this one... the 9-out-of-10 number doesn't quite pass the smell test... but I think the point speaks for itself.
I don’t want to say that this is bleak, per se. I mean, 1 million or so women in the U.S. with some decent marriageable bonafides. That’s not a small pool! The problem stems from noticing that said women will have somewhere upwards of 5 men, possibly near 27 who will be competing for their affections, or more if they’re near the absolute peak of physical attractiveness.
Hence my increasing annoyance with the bog standard advice proffered to young males “become worthy and put in some effort and you will find a good woman” as it becomes increasingly divorced from the actual reality on the ground.
It’s not wrong. It is incomplete. Insufficient. If we increase the number of “worthy” men, that’s just intensifying the competition for the desirable women… while ALSO ensuring that more of those ‘worthy’ men will lose and go unfulfilled, DESPITE applying their efforts towards “worthiness.”
You CAN’T tell young men both “be better, improve, you have to DESERVE a good woman before you get one!” and then, when he improves:
“oh, you have to lower your standards, just because you thought you deserved a stable, chaste(ish), physically fit partner doesn’t mean you’re entitled to one, world ain’t fair.”
That dog won’t hunt.
Thems the numbers. I’m not making this up wholesale or whining about advice because I find it uncomfortable. No. The math is directly belying the platitudes. I’m too autistic NOT to notice.
So where am I going with this?
First, I’m hoping, praying someone can actually show me evidence that this is wrong. All of my personal experience, anecdotal observations, research, and my gut fucking instinct all points to this being an accurate model of reality. But I am fallible.
If I’m wrong I want to know!
I’m also not particularly worried about ME in general. I am in a good position to find a good woman, even though I’m sick of all the numerous frustrations and inanities one has to endure to do so. I get annoyed when someone, even in good faith, tries to suggest that my complaints are more mental than real. I can see the numbers, I've been in the trenches for years, this is a true phenomena, the competition is heavy, the prizes are... lacking.
And finally and most importantly, I genuinely feel the only way we keep the Ferris Wheel of organized civilization turning is if average women are willing to marry average men, and stay married, and help raise kids. I’m all for pushing the ‘average’ quality up, as long as actual relationships are forming.
Objectively, that is not happening. And so I’m worried because if society breaks down... well, I live here and I don't like what that implies for me, either.
(Yes, AGI is possibly/probably going to make this all a moot point before it all really collapses)
Speaking from experience, this is all just a post hoc rationalization and confirmation of your preexisting incel worldview. Just because you were able to put the words in an AI's mouth doesn't make it any more impartial or objective.
Irregardless of AI, the "ratio" calculated by your fermi analysis is highly highly variable on small variations on the input data, especially if these data were collected in different studies or with different methodology. Even if your data comes from the same study, you have to also know that self-reported data is biased based on how different genders respond to questions.
If you want to talk about society and not just yourself, then your entire analysis is is premised on the wrong idea. You're deliberately nignoring all of the people who are happily married or at least in a relationship and only zeroing in on the miserable few who are not. Think about this alternative question: what percentage of women in each age bracket has whored or otherwise destroyed her marriage value? This is a much better look at the societal issue.[insert aislop here if available]
More pressing I think is the increasing number of single people even controlling for socioeconomic factors, as well as the decrease in the number of children per married couple. And besides that, the steadfast trend that educated professional people are more often single and have fewer children than the underclasses. Obese Laquisha is over there having 5 kids to that many dads, has $50k in debt, and probably has an STI too, so maybe your criteria aren't hitting at the root of the correct problem.
This number is going down very fast. There are fewer people in relationships AROUND THE WHOLE PLANET. It's not a 'miserable few' anymore.
That's as objectively true and readily observable as possible.
Was this something you were aware of?
I'm trying to figure out why.
And what can be done about it.
People just want to quibble around definitions and criteria or claim the numbers HAVE to be wrong, without bringing their own numbers.
Gotta be honest, I've thought of every single objection you guys keep bringing up, and when I do the barest amount of research it actually makes the overall picture look WORSE than I thought.
So no, I'm not 'confirming my pre-existing incel worldview.'
My attempts to REBUT it keep making my worldview worse, every time.
And nobody has been able to provide any actual data or reasonable argument to the contrary.
Of course the fact that relationships and childbirth are dropping is true.
But your claim that the reason is because too many women are fat ugly whores who are not worth marrying is a very incel coded conclusion.
What does incel actually mean? He considers himself likely to be successful with women and is lamenting the plight of his fellows.
Maybe incel isn't the correct word stricly speaking. It's just coded in the sphere of ideologies such as red pill, mgtow, mra, pua, etc.
The fact is that OP claims he could be successful with women, but is still single, has been looking for years, and feels that worthy women are rare.
Again, what does that have to do with whether it's true or false, correct or incorrect?
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