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I dislike the phrase "social contagion", which assumes that being trans is a negative and it's bad for it to spread. This negative connotation is, I think, what causes people to deny the obvious when they might not if the question were phrased differently. Is dyeing your hair a "social contagion"? Tattoos? The latest slang, the latest fashion? People will trivially be more likely adopt all these things if they know they're on the table, and even more so if they're popular. "People will be more likely to develop a desire to change genders if they know it's a commonly-done thing" is common sense, and I don't think "the pro-trans tribe" would deny it if the name people used for it wasn't something which implies it's a nefarious process that needs to be halted.
(Mind you, I do think we use puberty blockers on minors too cavalierly. But Rowling is not a good champion for that narrow, sensible point when she is clearly against social transition, and all forms of adult transition, as well.)
No matter which way you slice it, medical transition will have negative effects on your health. Few people would consider it a good idea to do it for cosmetic reasons, and even fewer parents would let their children do it for such a reason. This is why the possibility of the desire to transition being spread socially needs to be denied, and reasons for urgency (like suicide risk) need to be invented.
Well, see my parenthetical. I think we should tell 90% of trans minors "great, go ahead and transition socially, but you'll have to wait until you're of age for medical transition", and only medicalize the minority who have proper "will claw at their growing breasts with their bare nails if not allowed to get rid of them" dysmorphia.
One turn of the screw later, everyone who's been exposed to the trans meme will claw at their growing breasts with their bare nails if not allowed to get rid of them because they're told that that will get them what they want. The measure becomes the target. Then what?
I contend that what they want is to be taken seriously as their chosen gender, and a lot of trans teens who currently seek medicalization do so because they think it will improve their chances of that. If the two were successfully decoupled, far fewer would want it.
Except most trans teens seem to not want to be taken seriously as their chosen gender, they seem to want to be something other than their real gender- that’s basically the conclusion of Irreversible Damage. These trans folks are not attempting great conformity with the roles of their chosen gender.
"Their chosen gender" needn't be "traditional binary male or female". The point is that it's the social aspect they're primarily interested in, not really the surgery.
What other gender? I don’t understand what they’re conforming to?
Well, various flavors of nonbinary, for example, where deliberately making oneself unplaceable and gender-ambiguous is the desired outcome.
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