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ZorbaTHut  1yr ago (text post)   44971 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022

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I do not believe there's a sincere desire in the masses to reconcile, nor do I believe there's a practical way to do so. The tribal divisions may once have been small and manageable; but, like a cancerous tumor, they have swollen to terrible splendor, and insinuated themselves into every facet of life great and small. We are not one people who disagree on some things; we are, at a minimum, two completely antagonistic populations forced to occupy the same space.

There cannot be one nation ruled by two tribes. We will divorce or we will come to blows, eventually. One will become two or two will become one.

Counterpoint: No, we're a mostly aligned blob of people who agree on most issues, and the impression that we're headed for a civil war is an artifact of being extremely online, where insane people of all stripes are disproportionately present and energetic.

We don't share the same cultural tastes. We don't share the same views of foreign or domestic policy. We don't share the same ideas on the sanctity of life, the appropriate way to handle crime, and the fundamental role of the government. We don't enjoy the same hobbies, we don't visit the same places, we don't watch the same news.

Sure, maybe everyone likes the latest Marvel movie, and agrees on vague platitudes like "good things are good" and "bad things are bad". Cut through the surface level and actually dig into the substance of issues, though, and I see nothing but irreconcilable division.

Make a falsifiable prediction with a date attached to it.

Before 2030 we will have a statistically significant increase in violent crime with political motives across the country. I'll even be nice and say we don't have to count the BLM riots, as if we did my prediction would already be realized.

I'll even be nice and say we don't have to count the BLM riots, as if we did my prediction would already be realized.

This is where you give it away that you're just predicting that our status quo (of periodic political events accompanied by politically motivated crime) will continue. You said "There cannot be one nation ruled by two tribes. We will divorce or we will come to blows, eventually. One will become two or two will become one." You think a couple more political riots in the next decade is all that it takes to substantiate this apocalyptic vision? Come on, either tone down the rhetoric or make a prediction that justifies it.

This sounds like your problem, not mine. I made my prediction; you can accept it or not, but I'm not going to humor your protestations.

I do not believe there's a sincere desire in the masses to reconcile, nor do I believe there's a practical way to do so.

I agree and think this is the real mystery in today's culture war - how far will escalation continue?

In a way, civil war is incredibly unlikely for now because of the relative comfort and safety we have. However, I worry that this comfort allows the divisions plaguing us to keep simmering away and implicitly raises the stakes of any eventual conflict or divorce. We defer the conflict resolution at our peril. The evaporative cooling of a small scale civil war or something analogous like secession a decade ago, could have actually allowed a rapprochement.

I don't expect us to have a second Civil War. Organizing into armies and marching is a surefire way to have the power of the state come down on your head. What I am expecting within the decade is escalation to targeted terrorism, Troubles-style. The US does not have competing armies anymore, but it can easily have competing terrorists.

The US does not have competing armies anymore, but it can easily have competing terrorists.

No, it cannot. The US has the state capacity to stop nearly all domestic terrorism, and it does... when it comes from the right. Except when the counterterrorism orgs create it themselves, of course.

There is no state capacity that can stop a dedicated individual terrorist. If you try to form up into groups and make complicated schemes, yes, of course, the FBI will infiltrate and lead you to getting yourself imprisoned -- but ultimately, no force on earth can stop a man from getting a gun and opening fire, driving his car into someone, whatever.

That sort of thing just disappears into the vast background of crime and crazies. It's not useful for anything.

I firmly believe history, even recent history, indicates otherwise. Violence works better than anything else, so long as it's intelligently targeted.

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