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ZorbaTHut  1yr ago (text post)   45012 thread views

Culture War Roundup for the week of September 5, 2022

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Russia conducts a nuclear test in its own territory. Foreign policy types freak out, Ukraine shrugs, Russia continues losing.

Russia conducts a nuclear attack on Urkainian forces in Ukraine with an ultimatum for a cease fire. Foreign policy and serious military types freak out. Ukraine howls, Europeans increase sanctions, but also schism. A nominal cease fire might be started, but Russian demands for recognition of their demands schisms Europe as people who actually care about stable nuclear game theory recognize this is precisely the sort of demand you can't accede to for a stable nash equilibrium.

Nuclear-derived case fires will probably not hold, as 'I get to conquer you since I have nuclear weapons' is an extremely nuclear proliferation incentive beyond just Poland and other European powers. Conflict possibly transitions to an asymmetric conflict, but probably transitions into a conventional military artillery/UAV duel with drone exchanges as low-altitude drones become the 'plausible deniable' weapon of choice while SOF work.

Russia conducts a nuclear attack on Urkainian forces in Ukraine with an ultimatum for a cease fire. Foreign policy and serious military types freak out. Ukraine howls, Europeans increase sanctions, but also schism. A nominal cease fire might be started, but Russian demands for recognition of their demands schisms Europe as people who actually care about stable nuclear game theory recognize this is precisely the sort of demand you can't accede to for a stable nash equilibrium.

I do not anticipate the world backing down at all if Russia conducts a nuclear attack against Ukraine. I imagine they would alienate both China and India at the minimum and see sanctions from that camp.

It's not like Russia would be threatening them, so 'not like' has nothing to do with 'backing down.'

This is one of those cases where Europe is not 'the world,' and conflation will make the general conflict apathy seem surprising when 'the world's' preference is not getting caught in a nuclear exchange more than the security structure of Europe.

This is plausible but I hope we never find out.

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